Will Putin fight for Crimea?
The occupation of Crimea created the conditions for the final celebration of the authoritarian state, just as the attack on Ukraine in 2022 helped Putin move from authoritarianism to totalitarianism. So Putin - and do not doubt - will fight for the Crimea, - writes Vitaliy Portnikov for Crimea. The question, I think, is only: whether the Russian president will be ready to use nuclear weapons to preserve control over the Crimean peninsula. But the rest of the resources will be involved.
Therefore, it is necessary to be prepared for the fact that the liberation of Crimea is not only a question of opportunities, but also a question of price. But so we can say about all other Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia. However, no one said that Putin would have enough resources to prevent the release of Crimea. It is possible that optimists are right in their hopes for the rapid liberation of the peninsula and the rapid end of the war.
However, the liberation of Crimea or Donbass is the defeat of Russia, but I think not the end of the war. It is believed that if Ukraine manages to liberate its territories, then the war will end at the negotiating table and at this table Ukraine will be strengthened by the success of its armed forces.
But so do people who, apparently, do not want to look at the situation with Putin's eyes and understand that for the Russian president a defeat is not a loss of territories, but the cessation of war and even on Ukrainian conditions. What happens when the Ukrainian flag rises above Simferopol? From the Ukrainian point of view, from the point of view of the international community, this will obviously be restored by the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
And, I think, from Putin's point of view - Ukrainians, with the support of the event, "occupy" part of the "original" Russian lands. If Putin is able to stay in power - he will prepare a country, certain, not for peace talks, but for revenge. That is why it is probably so important for Ukraine not only to release Crimea, but also to get clear security guarantees. For example, join NATO. Well, it is probably necessary to take measures to protect the Crimea itself.
In our eyes, Russian troops practically destroy Kherson - from the Kremlin's point of view "Regional Center of the Russian Federation". Do not doubt that with the same cruelty, the Russian occupier will beat Sevastopol and Simferopol, Yalta and Sudak. It is in this case that the same "stones from the sky" will appear that they loved to mention in Russian propaganda publications in 2014.
And although there will be no opportunities such as in the case of Kherson in the Crimea in the Russian troops, they are able to cause significant losses and turn part of its territory into a zone where they will be afraid to live - however, and this also applies to all border with Russia lands. Therefore, the liberation of Crimea and the safety of Crimea, the liberation of Ukraine and the security of Ukraine are confident are inseparable concepts. Copyright © 2020 RFE/RL, Inc.