The Belarus Army is unlikely to participate in the invasion of Ukraine - isw as
Belarusian authorities, including President Alexander Lukashenko, play these operations. ISW suggests that the main goal of propaganda campaigns is to distract the Armed Forces on the Belarusian border, which will limit the capabilities of the Ukrainian army in other areas of the front. "The invasion of Belarus into Ukraine is extremely unlikely in the near future, regardless of the course of these information operations.
Moreover, Belarusian intervention in Ukraine will not be able to make more than temporarily distracting Ukrainian land troops from other parts of the theater Minsk, "analysts say in their report. According to ISW, the Kremlin did not give up the purpose of establishing complete control over Belarus. For this purpose, Russian officials are trying to force Minsk to support a new invasion of Ukraine.
As an example, analysts are given a recent meeting of the head of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoig and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, which took place on December 3. "They met for further strengthening of bilateral security in the field of security. Probably in the context of the Union State and to increase the pressure of Russia on Belarus in order to further support the Russian invasion of Ukraine," analytics added, commenting on the Kremlin's plans.
The ISW report states that even additional involvement of personnel will not allow Lukashenko to achieve significant prompt success at the border. Analysts are convinced that the joint invasion of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus will also not cut the logistics lines of Ukraine in the direction of the event. It should be noted that at the end of November, information about the transfer of air defense systems into the territory of Belarus appeared in the media.