Zaporozhye, Kharkiv or Donbas. Where the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can start a new big offensive
Since the beginning of the year, both the official reports of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the media are increasingly sounds that Russia can start a new large -scale offensive in Ukraine. Focus has collected everything that is known about the likely directions, terms, as well as official statements of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies.
The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov in an interview with "Ukrainian Truth" stated that the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could begin in one of several directions. It can be the East - Donetsk and Lugansk region, the south - the Zaporizhzhya direction, or the north - a second attack on Kyiv. According to the Head of the Defense Office, the east and south of the country are most threatened, and then there is northern direction.
"Of course, key risks: east, south, and then north. These are the risks that are. They need to be evaluated, calmly, but without panic. I do not want society to think that" Everything! ", No," - " Rennikov explained. At this time, up to 12,000 Russian servicemen, as well as armored vehicles, is in Belarus. The commander of the group of defense forces of Kiev Lieutenant-General Alexander Pavlyuk said that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation did not have shock groups in Belarus.
The territory is more used to study Russian soldiers. Alexei Reznikov also believes that the enemy will not attack several sides. The media began to write that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could prepare a new offensive on Kharkiv. However, the deputy chairman of the Kharkiv regional administration Roman Semenukha stated that it was a hostile misinformation, launched to sow panic and force the General Staff to throw some of the forces there.
The only threat to the city is rocket strokes. "There is no threat to Kharkiv except rocket stroke ", - says Semenukha. It is known that in Russia it is planned to mobilize from 300 to 500 thousand citizens to start an offensive in the spring to summer. At the same time, 300,000 soldiers have already been called up in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Together, this shows that the Kremlin does not plan to stop the war.
Hostile actions can be activated in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, probably in the Zaporozhye region. According to GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate), the Russians will be defense in the Kherson region and on the approaches to the Crimea. Ukrainian intelligence believes that a new wave of mobilization in Russia will take up to two months.
The Financial Times of February 6 states that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation plan to an offensive over the next 10 days - so a new stage of invasion of Ukraine falls in the middle of February. It is emphasized that the main direction for the impact will be flint in the direction of the Liman; The grouping in the Mariupol area is also increasing. The authors suggest that the offensive units of Russian invaders will lead.
It is important for the Kremlin to capture Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The British edition of The Guardian writes that Russians can try to "feel" Ukrainian defense positions and go on the offensive in the Zaporozhye direction. The soldiers of the 56 Mariupol Brigade note the gradual strengthening of hostilities. The number of shelling has already increased from 2000 to 4000 per day.
The Telegraph notes that in the last few weeks, Russian troops have intensified in the Zaporozhye direction, in the coal of Donetsk region and on the entire front line in the Luhansk region. However, the main stroke is unknown. Bakhmut offensive can at the same time be a distraction maneuver. Since the beginning of the year, the information space has been reported that the Russian Federation will start to fight "seriously".
In particular, the former adviser to Putin Andrey Ilarionov (Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation in Economics from 2000 to 2005) spoke about it. On January 13, he said that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prepare large -scale operations related to the offensive throughout Ukraine, from Lviv to Odessa. Lviv - as an important nodal center through which the supply of Western equipment and Odesa - to go to Moldova.
The report on the offensive from Belarus in GUR is called the information and psychological operation of the Russian Federation. There are no shock groups in Belarus to attack Kyiv. British intelligence also noted that the occupiers were not able to advance in several directions at the same time. However, the adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Mikhail Podolyak believes that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will use hybrid tactics.
The enemy can try to disorient the Armed Forces, attacking from several sides. "Panic, fear and panic again. As well as large -scale internal information conflicts. This is what the Russians, (launching) on networks intensify the hybrid component of the war," said Podolyak.
Former adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Alexei Arestovich believes that Vladimir Putin prepares his offensive not for the sake of a very ghostly victory, but to create a deadlock at the front, and then for the beginning of negotiations. Moscow wants to have a more profitable position on negotiations. Arestovich calls the peak of the enemy's readiness for a new invasion of Ukraine. "The peak unnick, by design, I understand - somewhere in March. March is a period of intense fighting.
And somewhere in April to start fixing on the borders. The task of the enemy is to take the most favorable boundaries. For the new offensive, Russian troops will focus on their efforts in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, " - said Alexei Arestovich. Military expert, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko says that the Russian Federation has begun to transfer the 2nd Motorial Division from Belarus to the front. This can be a sign of the beginning of escalation. There are also active fighting in many areas.