All shocked - from Washington to Moscow. Biden and Xi are now unable to negotiate with Putin
Without any exaggeration, this is an unprecedented solution. It is not just a decision on the arrest of the existing head of state. Such decisions were before. It is a nuclear state with special status in the UN. There was nothing like this before. It is clear that it is not a sentence of court or physical arrest, but it is a legal and moral brand, which sharply narrows the space for a political maneuver not only for the Russian dictator, but also for the leaders of the democratic world.
I have a great suspicion that Baiden, and even more with Macron and Scholz, not to mention different orbans, this decision is not delighted, rather creates a bunch of additional restrictions and problems, in particular about potential plans for the end of the war in Ukraine.
And in this sense, the decision on the arrest of Putin is a vivid illustration that in the Western world the principles of the rule of law, the independence of the judicial system (in this case international) can act against the rules and traditions of Real Politik (real classical policy).
It seems to me that the judges and investigators of the International Criminal Court were so shocked and outraged by the mass and systematic actions of the Russian authorities on the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children that they had no doubt about the need for such an unprecedented step as a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In this decision, legal and moral logic worked, not political.
I am convinced that almost everyone is shocked - from Moscow to Washington. I think that we were unlikely to expect it. Anyway not now. But I pay tribute, I express the words of respect and thanks to all who documented the crimes of the Russians regarding the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children and contributed to the investigative and judges of the International Criminal Court in their work in this case.
I honor the courage and determination of the judges of the pre -trial proceedings of the II International Criminal Court, which made a decision on the arrest of Putin. Ukraine can also take this decision as its intermediate victory in the war against the aggressor country and its bloodthirsty leader. What's next? Certainly, a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin does not mean that he will be arrested tomorrow.
Not even all countries that have signed and ratified the Roman Statute (and 123) will dare to such actions. But Putin will not risk. Toxicity is added to political toxicity. The isolation of the Russian dictator is greatly increased. Even if you consider this decision (about the arrest warrant) outside the legal framework, it will be perceived as a "black label" as a brand of toxicity and non -detachable Putin (in any case, for politicians who comply with democratic values and standards).
It is a signal to the Western elites, and to all others that Putin now receives (so far previously) the status of a dictator-gunman, something like Gaddafi and Saddam Hussin. Incidentally, it is a signal to the Russian elites - if they want to get out of the mess where they were due to the decision of the Kremlin dictator about the war against Ukraine, they should get rid of Putin. Otherwise, the same warrants will also be expected. By the way, many will be waiting, and inevitable.
Now I have no doubt about this. But the "performers" can always lose all the guilt on the "main person" that made key decisions. And so the moods of fear and uncertainty in the Russian top will only intensify. I do not think that judges of the International Criminal Court who made a decision on the arrest of President of Russia Vladimir Putin, planned some political consequences of their decision, or acted on someone's instructions.
Once again, I will emphasize that this solution is more likely to create additional problems for Western leaders. It is about the objective political consequences of this decision. In addition to strengthening the political isolation of the Russian dictator, I see two main political consequences of the Putin's arrest. First, the space for the maneuver on political contracts on the end of the war in Ukraine is sharply narrowing.
And negotiations (in any case public and official), and even more so to negotiate, will not have to be with Putin. To negotiate with a state leader who wants to arrest the International Criminal Court will be unacceptable from both legal and moral points of view. Critics may say that the US also does not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Yes, when it concerns US citizens. But when it concerns Putin, you will have to count with the warrant for his arrest.
This does not mean that any opportunity to negotiate Russia's current war against Ukraine disappears. Negotiations will be possible and even necessary to complete the fighting and then to resolve various conflict issues. But these will be negotiations and arrangements without Putin's participation. And most importantly, there will be no fundamental concessions to the Kremlin dictator. Compromises with him can no longer be.
Secondly, Putin finds himself (at least in the legal sense) in the situation of a rat, which is driven into a dead end. And this is the most problematic situation that Western leaders tried to avoid. The question that worries everyone: how will Putin react to such a solution? Obviously, in the Russian Federation they said at once, they will not recognize it. But you will have to count with the restrictions as a result of this decision.
Will this decision be increased by Russia's aggression, the disappearance of all red lines for Putin? So the absolute majority of red lines Putin has already broken. There is the only significant red line that remains - the use of nuclear weapons. However, it is the path to self -destruction and Russia itself. And the "senior comrade" in the person of China will be against the use of nuclear weapons. The Chinese leader will probably support Putin a little in the current situation, but nothing more.
The most likely scenario is the transition of the Putin regime to deaf and aggressive defense. To sum up, the spring of the military-political conflict not only between Ukraine and Russia, but also between the West and Putin of Russia is even more twisted, and this confrontation is added a significant legal component. Figuratively speaking, Putin is driven into an international legal and political reservation.