Where the offensive was preparing. Why Lukashenko stopped talking about his participation in the war
Moreover, he noted that he was assured that neither Poland nor Ukraine was going to attack him. "So calm down, work quietly. No one is going to attack us. In particular, the Ukrainians. And they are not going. But we need to be prepared for everything. Therefore, cherish children. Preferably - more, " - quotes Lukashenko his press service. These statements were made after the sudden check of the battle readiness of the Belarusian army, which began in April and will be stretched indefinitely.
At that time, State Secretary of Security of the RB Oleksandr Volfovich stated that "the check will include a full range of measures related to the transfer of the connection from peacetime to wartime, conscript conscripts, the supply of weapons, the release appointment". To be simpler, it means that Belarusians are preparing to move from peacetime to military.
On May 2, Lukashenko gathered a meeting of security forces on security, law and order and measures for the protection of the state border. In the West, the Belarusian politician again mentioned that "the situation remains complicated" and instructed to prepare serious measures at the border in order to prevent sabots to the territory of the country.
For his part, Anatoly Lappo, Head of the State Border Committee of Belarus, reported that maneuverable groups were formed on the border to counteract a potential enemy. "In the past, we have formed one mangroup in a mozyr detachment (this is about 300 people), now the situation is such that we are forced to form one mangroup in the lida direction, the second as a reserve - in the Brest direction.
It will be autumn - they may not be needed there We will, we will turn to another direction, " - said Lappo. Why autumn, he did not explain, but the hint of the Ukrainian counter -offensive is clear. On the same day, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus showed footage from a 300-kilometer march of missile troops and artillery, which takes place within the next stage of comprehensive inspection of combat readiness.
It is stated that the column of equipment from the air will be covered by drones throughout the route of its movement. Against the background of Lukashenko's pacifist statements, such actions are not perceived as a reluctance to fight. And the words of politics can be regarded as intentional reassurance of the population, which began to be nervous through the military assembly of reservists, distribution of stories and moving military equipment with cities.
The State Border Service of Ukraine notes that the number of Russian invaders has decreased in Belarus. As of May 1, there were about 2,800 servicemen. This number is much smaller than it was a few months ago. "The Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Naev has repeatedly stated that the possibility of offensive from the territory of Belarus is minimal.
There is a minimum number of Russian soldiers in the territory of the country, in general in the territory of the border of the RB and in the Bryansk and Kursk regions record up to 17 thousand personnel. Similar statements and actions are made to distract the Armed Forces efforts on the defense of more than a thousand -silometer front, " - says Focus military expert Dmitry Snegirev. He draws attention to another - it is precisely the strengthening of the KGB in the republic.
They were given instructions to strictly act on the manifestation of resistance and possible sabotage groups (DRG). Within a week, there were reported on detention of sabotage groups. As they say, in the best traditions of the USSR. On May 3, the Command of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces reported that in the territory of the Republic of Belarus continues to stay the aviation group and grouping of the land forces of the Russian Federation.
Now there are no threats of terrestrial offensive actions from the territory of the Republic of Belarus, and from the territory of Kursk and Bryansk regions. In addition, it should be noted that the Russian Federation has stopped using the territory of Belarus to strike rocket strikes in Ukraine and launch drones. Focus surveyed experts say that the reason for this behavior of Lukashenko can be many aspects.
First of all, these are the results of the March meeting of Lukashenko and China leader Xi Jinping. It was then that the Belarusian policy was hinted that his army in no way participated in the war in Ukraine. The sanctions imposed against Minsk are significantly harming Beijing, as it continues to use Belarus as a transit platform. "There have been some changes after meetings with the leadership of the PRC and a number of negotiations. Beijing considers Belarus in the orbit of its interests.
At least Belarusian jet fire systems" Polonaise ", which is common with China, is mentioned," Snegireov comments. We will remind, already in April during a meeting with the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus needs guarantees of protection from the Russian Federation, as the event did not fulfill an agreement on security guarantees in accordance with the Budapest Memorandum.
Half a year ago, he declared a single army and the willingness of Belarusians to stand in the first rows of protecting the so -called "union state". The expert of the International and Internal Policy of the Analytical Center Ukrainian Institute of the Future Igor Tyshkevich is convinced that all these statements are made for the domestic and external consumer in anticipation of the reaction.
Lukashenko is well aware that further deep interference in the war in Ukraine is threatening to him, his power and the country. "Conclusions should be drawn from action, not statements. For example, look, so-called" mobics "in Belarus has now become smaller, the aircraft of long-range A-50 radar reconnaissance has not yet returned, and" daggers "may be used, but this does not happen" , - says Tyshkevich Focus.
Lukashenko needs to show your electorate that everything is under control, so he continues to demonstrate his warlike rhetoric. Therefore, he uses the tactics of uniting the population around the leader in authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, in this way, causing maximum mobilization of society. "Lukashenko is more experienced and cunning than Putin, he is well aware that the" Russian ship "is already going to the bottom.
In the first months of the war he readily provided his territory to invade and strike, the calculation was that the winners were not judged. To change, and now Lukashenko sees and understands that this war will not be victorious for Putin, so he changes his behavior, " - says the focus military expert Oleg Zhdanov.