"We will see the end of Putin": after the victory of Ukraine in the war of the Russian Federation can fall apart - expert
In his view, Russia's invasion of Ukraine will lead to the opposite of what Putin hoped. "I see a good likelihood that we will see Putin's end. And although this is not my basic scenario, I think that the breakdown of the federation into many new states is possible - as in the case of the USSR in 1991," Ash wrote. The expert believes that the Russian Federation can fall apart in 20 countries. One of them will be "Little Russia".
According to Ash, the world has already understood that Putin has no dominance on escalation of conflict. He is afraid of NATO because he saw the Ukrainian military use Western weapons. "If NATO lands its own set of 4th and 5th generation against Russia, it will end in a few hours. Putin knows it," Ash said. He is convinced that if Vladimir Putin goes to exacerbation, he is threatened with a complete defeat. However, the war with Ukraine in any case has a bad effect on Russia.
In addition, Alexander Motyl Rutgers University of Political Science in Newark believes that after Putin loses power, the collapse of centralized administration will begin in the Russian Federation. "We do not know who wins, but we can confidently predict that the struggle for power will weaken the regime and distract Russia from the war," Motile wrote in the article on Foreign Policy. The expert suggested that Russia will become a weak state that will depend strongly on China.
Motyl wrote that a combination of a failed war abroad and a tense system within the Russian Federation increases the likelihood of "explosion" every day. In his opinion, the event should be prepared for this. The weakened Putin regime, big problems in the economy can make the Russians go outside and start protesting much more than it used to be. Earlier, Focus wrote that journalists told about the real loss of the Russian army in the war with Ukraine.
According to experts, the total losses of the invaders in 10 months of the war may exceed 164 thousand people, considering the wounded. Also we will remind that in GUR they told why the seriously ill Putin is still alive. If the head of the Kremlin, according to the deputy chairman of the GUR Ministry of Defense Vadim Skibitsky, would be treated by Russian specialists - he would have died earlier.