The end of the war will be in May or October 2023. This is indicated by three factors
I became very rarely heard this issue, although in the first months it was almost the most popular. For me, this is evidence of the extraordinary power of our people. We are proud of the Armed Forces, but we need to be proud of all our people, which demonstrates the tremendous power of spirit. The fact that people began to ask about the end of the war that we have accepted one variant of events: only victory. And time does not matter.
But, as an analyst, I want to share with you my thoughts about when the war can still end. So, the last few weeks have shown a number of events that, in my opinion, give reason to draw conclusions about the end of the war. Contrary to their plans, this did not lead to any fracture. They gave birth to this building throughout Russia, and the mountain gave birth to a mouse. It is clear that it will be even harder to form new buildings than this 3rd, which especially has decided nothing.
In fact, the efforts with the birth of new forces in Russia are heading to zero. And all their new battalions will only change the trimmed and broken. We are increasingly hiding from anxiety, calibers fly very rarely, less often they began to fly and various x and "onyxs". The phenomenon of "fire shaft" almost disappeared on the front. All this is evidence of missile and artillery resources. No, they have not ended or end.
But the enemy is forced to start protecting them, because he realizes that in the long period he will not be able to replenish their stocks. At the same time, by the end of autumn we will receive German and Norwegian ZRK. This is perhaps one of the most important news. Often we have to doubt the reliability of our partners and their willingness to tolerate inconvenience. Now Putin stepped once, leaving the Europeans to look for the opportunity to finally do without Russian gas.
I will remind that the EU consumed 83% of Russian gas. These factors seriously affect how the war will unfold. I highlight two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. The optimistic scenario implies that in the spring we will see many gestures of "goodwill" and the beginning of the negotiation process. This will be accompanied by the cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of Russian troops from a number of occupied territories. Peace negotiations will end approximately in May.
The formula will be about this: Russia will give up the requirements of denacification and reconciliation of the Donbass territory, will take the duty to restore Ukraine in the abandoned sanctions. Ukraine will refuse to enter NATO. Donbas and Crimea will not be discussed. The main condition for this scenario is the task of significant damage to Russian exports of oil by sanctions that start in December.
This will be possible in particular when changing the position of India and China on the purchase of Russian energy resources. If in January, Putin sees that his financial prospects on the verge of bankruptcy, the war will start to lose meaning. After all, this fall he will flood the money to keep the war on war. To flood the social, to pull the war - it is necessary to earn space. Pessimistic scenario. China and India will support Putin, and he will be fine with finances.
But this support will not be long, as in the spring will begin a serious recession of the world economy, and energy prices will still fall. Putin will use winter to maximize the accumulation of new forces and throw them into battle in March-April. These forces will not be able to show the result, but intense battles will be held until July-August until the situation this year again happens.