Will look like February: Butusov predicted the Russians strategy at a new stage of war
"Obviously, the mobilization and change of command of war in the Russian Federation are aimed at conducting a new major offensive operation, the purpose of which is to intercept the strategic initiative that Russia has lost in March," Butus said. "It seems to me that Russia will try to repeat the same strategy with great forces, from which the "first and second stages of special operations" began. Russian Federation in Ukraine Commander of Air Force forces Sergiy Surovikin.
Currently, the occupiers are trying to detect the air defense system with the help of Iranian drones that fly out in different directions. At the same time, the Russians have become less commonly used in certain directions. Also ARM The Russian Federation will continue to cause terrorist strikes on the residential buildings of Zaporozhye, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv, as Russian generals consider these actions "isolation of hostilities".
In addition, occupiers can beat on energy supply facilities in cities, railway stations in the Dnieper River, strategic bridges to disable the communication system. Before that, they are actively called in Russia. "Russia will continue the" punishment of cities and the population "for their defense forces," Butus is convinced. He also awaits new attempts by the Russians with the participation of mobilized reservists and private armies of Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigogine.
The bulk of the mobilized should come to Ukraine within the next few weeks. These forces can be sent by Russian generals to the same directions that the Russians have repeatedly tried to attack. According to Yuri Butusov, it is worth expecting a new offensive in the direction of Bakhmut-Soledar. It is important for the Kremlin to succeed there to give a report on victory to the Russians.
In addition, Surovikin, Kadyrov and Prigogine want to show that they are better commanders than the head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov, so they will try to break into strategically important Bakhmut. In the direction of the Svatovo-Kremen, the Russian army will try to stand by the counterattack Ukrainian troops near Svatov, again capture the estuary and knock out Ukrainians outside the Luhansk region.
The Russian mobilized has already gone into this direction to keep the defense from collapse. It is important for the Russians to capture cities in the direction of the Navari-Novoselivka to protect the corridor in the Crimea from the Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporozhye region. Local attacks in the direction of Avdiivka-Marinka will carry out to move Ukrainian troops from Donetsk.
In the Kherson region, the enemy will strengthen the defense and will keep the Kakhovsky bridgehead as long as possible, but a large -scale offensive is impossible there, since communications across the Dnieper are under the fire control of the Armed Forces. To prevent Ukrainians from continuing the offensive, Russians can try to clamp the Armed Forces in the north, creating a threat in the directions of Kyiv-Chernihiv Kharkiv-Sumy.
The Russian Federation will also try to draw the Belarusian army into the war. "The Russian command will try to get the initiative by changing tactics and at the expense of extensive increase in numbers," says Butusov. "Putin generals are looking for opportunities to keep captured in Lugansk and Kherson regions, and to force the Armed Forces to stop offensive operations. But tactical decisions can only . The advantage of such actions cannot be obtained.
At the moment when the Russian mobilized army will not be able to keep the front that was unable to keep the professional army, the tools for maintaining the land front of Putin will no longer be any. " We will remind, in Belarus they want to conduct military exercises, which will involve from 5 to 7 thousand reservists. On October 8, Minsk's representatives accused Ukraine of preparing an attack on Belarus. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine was called allegations in insinuations.