Folder in a package or who is now dying for Putin
The Russian Federation proudly reports about a relatively small number. In September, Shoiga spoke about 5,000 from the beginning of the Operation. In December, "Izvestia" was given a "score" - "losses minimal. The losses of the Ukrainian side were estimated at tens of thousands. Surprisingly, given the attempts of the army of the Russian Federation to advance, declared mobilization and, finally, recruitment of prisoners.
As well as the state of fields, for example , under Bakhmut, which are littered with corpses. The Ukrainian side also does not give the number of losses, but it calculates Russian. According to these data, the Russian Federation has lost more than 135 thousand people. This theoretically explains the need for mobilization, Putin's decrees to increase the number Russian "ZEKs" on the front. Accurate common figures are likely to be obtained only after the war.
But in this case, Russian and Ukrainian data will most likely be different. At least such a picture is observed by most wars and regional conflicts. But there is another another The aspect that should be taken into account is a regional incision - the features of the subjects of the federation. regions, and their share (percentage) from the population of the territory.
After all, 100 corpses from the front will not be noticed in the conditional Moscow, and in the city with a population of 100 thousand it is already a large figure. On this again we rest in the absence of numbers. More precisely, their marriage, because in the local press (where it is), obitrologists are published, materials about the dead. Not all, of course, but even tracking such messages gives a number that significantly exceeds the data of the Ministry of Defense of Russia.
And in the case of monitoring of the local press, each "unit" has a name, surname, relatives, history of burial. Several organizations are conducted similar calculation. The Russian BBC and Media Again are given every month. I used their data in previous reviews. Then there was a vivid picture - the most massive (in % of the population) losses were in national autonomies and depressive regions with the level of salaries significantly lower than the Central Russian.
And the smallest proportion of losses - in "rich" and developed territories. Simply put, to die for Putin sent those who had no chance of securing a decent life in Putin in present Russia. And the difference % of the dead (from the population) reached 50-60 times. Since September 2022, when he analyzed the regional incision, some time has passed. Russia has escaped from Kherson region and continued to attempt to storm Bakhmut.
There were losses (which only increased), mobilization passed, the top 10 regions with the maximum and minimum amount of losses changed. Let's see more in detail. In September, Shoigi spoke about 5937 dead. The verification of the local press then gave the figure of 6424 buried. And these are those who were written about the media - because not all cases of the funeral of the "black package" that arrived from the front, fall into the media. And in some regions (villages, settlements, etc.
), local media may not be. In early February 2023, the number of confirmed funerals in the Russian Federation increased twice to 12 925 cases. The top 10 regions have changed for the largest number of people killed in the war (10,000 inhabitants). If on average, the number of buried is 0. 008%, then the rating leaders have figures from 0. 02%to 0. 042%. This list looks, which includes 11, not 10 regions, as follows: there is a significant gap.
In order to understand the scale of problems for these regions, I emphasize that the average in the Russian Federation is 0. 008%. But the top 10 regions with the slightest amount of loss: each group has its own peculiarities. The leading regions in a proportion of recognized losses usually have an average salary, much lower than the average Russian level. Unlike the September ranking, there is no longer a "property" gap. The reason is the ranking of five regions with northern allowances.
But all of them have common features - in 10 regions there are only 4 industrial enterprises that are in the top 250 Russian industry. In 10 regions there is no university of the Russian top 50. Simply put, these are depressive or raw materials (which in terms of socio-economic development can also be attributed to depressed). And most of them are located away from the center. Regions with the smallest fraction of losses have more in common.
Each of their income is higher than the Central Russian indicator. In these regions, at least 30% of Russian industrial potential is concentrated (included in the top 250). At least 30 universities in the Russian top 50 are concentrated in these territories. At the same time, the difference between the share of losses in the war to the population of the region in Moscow and Tivi differs 70 times! But the situation will change. At the same time, it is worth noting some alignment.
The regions that served as cannon meat have relatively small reserves of human resources. And an increase in the share of loss can cause dissatisfaction at the local level. Even 0. 042% of Tivi means that the war directly affected at least 0. 1% of residents (dead + family). And this is only confirmed by the media. The real figure may be larger.
Given the limited mobilization potential of depressive regions, the Russian Federation is forced to take into the army of residents of other subjects of the federation. The effect is somewhat smoothed out by recruiting prisoners. As well as the active use of the so -called "LNR" and "DNR" mobilized from the so -called "LNR", which Russian statistics will not take a long time. But this resource ends sooner or later.
Therefore, a mobilization has been carried out, which the Kremlin can not only repeat, but also repeat as the disposal of living force. And the first results of mobilization have already manifested in statistics for February. For example, the proportion of confirmed deaths in the Magadan region from September to late January increased 6. 6 times, in Chukotka - 5 times, in the Sverdlovsk region - 2. 4 times, in Yanao - 3 times. Thus, the number of funerals on the ground will increase.
The proportion of the dead from the number of inhabitants is too. And this figure will start to be aligned. The exception, of course, will be central and rich regions. After all, for the Kremlin, undesirable problems in the key subjects of the federation. Propaganda will work for the rest with the "Great War Against the West" and the regime of secrecy, which will sooner or later feel the owners of the local press.