Pseudo -referendums of Russian invaders: why now and what will happen next
Why now, on the one hand, the decision to hold "referendums" in temporarily occupied territories is a slightly delayed reaction to the successful counter -offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv region and slower, but uniquely confident - in Kherson region.
On the other hand, the solution is really Aral, but it means that: - even the picture of "legitimacy" is no longer interesting to Russia itself; - The power wing (for greater rigidity, for mobilization, for nuclear blackmail) won in this case against the background of discord and disorientation. What is likely to be an annexation of these territories to stop Ukraine. Especially in Luhansk region. There, "Violence" still rose - the prospect of de -occupation is absolutely real.
And Russia understands it perfectly, the gloom of propaganda is gradually scattered against the background of loss of occupied territories and lack of skilled personnel. And this is the main trigger. The Russians were filmed from Kremlin, Svatov and even Starobilsk. Because if Ukraine had enough forces to go further, they would have to run even faster than from Kharkiv region. They need to stop the situation. First - politically: annexation, will try to engage in negotiations.
Of course, it will not give anything. For Ukraine, it is an unnecessary reason to move on and require even more support. Next, new military methods will go: - partial (more likely) or complete (less likely) mobilization in the Russian Federation: Ukraine's counter -offensive for "territory of Russia" will be adequate to the Russians with justification. Other methods (hidden mobilization, mercenaries, prisoners) have failed.