It's time to forget about Russia. That happens between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan believes that he won in the war. Accordingly, Armenia should take into account these circumstances and seek peace on Azerbaijani. Armenians think that they paused and will be ready to restore the arts (Nagirny Karabakh) for some time, will only strengthen the army a little, improve the economy. These are the strategies of the two countries.
They are poured into the fact that Azerbaijan tries to resolve Karabach as quickly as possible, and in general the whole set of issues, because there are issues of corridors (Lachinsky), status, borders. And Armenia wants to delay all this indefinitely. The key to this is the Russian presence on the Azerbaijani land. Azerbaijan wants to get rid of this presence and a legitimate reason to send Russians following the Russian ship, there will be a peace agreement with Armenia.
This means that the peace agreement must be concluded on the Azerbaijani principles. Accordingly, Armenia does not want it. That is, everyone talks about peace, the conclusion of a peace agreement, but one country insists, and the other delay. The calculation of Armenians that they can restore their army, strengthen it and in the future to repel territories now debunked by the strikes of the Azerbaijani army on military objects that have already been practically destroyed.
And Azerbaijan demonstrates that he is able to impose his will, including his will. In many Azerbaijani publications, this strategy is called "coercion to peace. " From the point of view of Armenia, Russia's ally is a country that has applied this strategy very often to other countries, it sounds humiliating or with a huge stream.
And in parallel, there is another track - international arrangements, Europe, which also wants to be a mediator and get some political dividends from the peace in the South Caucasus. There is also Turkey, which demonstrates its full support for Azerbaijan and also tries to offer Armenians their mediation, which will provide Armenians with safety in new geopolitical conditions, but the Armenians are not ready for it.
Because there are a lot of antituric narratives that are embedded in their identity. Therefore, it is very difficult to imagine. There is an active stance of the spur - the Armenian diaspora, which tries to mobilize its supporters and politicians, first of all, in France and the United States. Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan, together with Moscow, also tries to regulate this situation. But the circumstances are that they cannot intervene very much, to play seriously on this field.
It is impossible to even impose sanctions against Azerbaijan, because it is now a very important country for Europe in terms of energy and more. That is, there was a unique opportunity for Azerbaijan, using an offensive strategy, to resolve this issue by 2025 and to get rid of the Russians forever. Why by 2025? Because the agreement, signed on November 9–10, 2020, for five years, and if not prolonged, it ceases to exist.
It is understood that Russian so -called peacekeepers should leave the territory of Azerbaijan if he says that this agreement is not prolonged. I regard Azerbaijan's strategy as quite successful. Some experts said that on August 5, in Sochi, at a meeting with Turkish President, Putin "handed over with Telbuhas" his ally in the October Armenia. The thing is not that "handed over". In the post -Soviet space, most countries should be forgotten about Russia as an ally.