Nine the main consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine

Timothy Ash British economist, expert on Ukraine for Russia is difficult to imagine a scenario for which she will not have to pay a high price for a very long time for the war with Ukraine more , unable to predict the finale, I think, we can draw some general conclusions about long -term consequences. I want to share the course of my thoughts.

Video Day, if on February 24 and in the following days there were real doubts that Ukraine would exist as a sovereign and independent state, now it is clear that Ukraine will exist and probably flourish after the end of the war. On February 24, fears were that Russia would either seize Kyiv and most of the country and manage these territories as a puppet state, or even annex them to Russia. But now we know - great Russian ambitions have fallen with a devastating defeat in the battle for Kyiv.

Russia has tried, but failed to capture the whole country, and now the Kremlin has to claim only the capture of all Donbass, the land corridor to the Crimea, and to try to force Ukraine and the world to recognize the accession of Crimea. But even these ambitions are now overly larger, as Ukraine continues to fight and wage war with Russia, planning a counter -offensive in Kherson and an attack on Russia's occupied Crimea.

The question is, will Russia be able to keep even what it has? Indeed, Russia seems to reach maximum capabilities by taking a little less than 20% of the Ukrainian territory, but this means that Ukraine controls the vast majority of the country and its people. All major settlements, except Kherson and Melitopol, remain in Ukrainian hands, and the country has remained in the sea through Odessa, which will be crucial for the restoration and development of the Ukrainian economy.