What will lead to Putin's hysteria. Several of the most realistic versions of the further course of war and the situation in the world
On the morning of September 21, the Kremlin's master Putin again declared a great war to Ukraine without declaring it. If for the first time, on February 24, he did it, declaring the beginning of a "special military operation", now everything happened under the guise of recognition in advance of "referendums" in the occupied lands of Ukraine, NATO threats with nuclear weapons and a manner about the beginning of "partial" mobilization in the Russian Federation.
Video of the day as Putin explained, the special operation is successful - the army of the Russian Federation slowly "releases" Donbas. It is this, according to the dictator, is now a key task of Russia. But the trouble was, the Kremlin's master said that the front line stretched for a thousand kilometers, and the Russians were opposed not only by "neo -Nazi formations", but also "in fact the whole military machine of the collective event.
" Putin plans to answer this "car" on the battlefield, attracting hundreds of thousands of Russians in the army. In addition, he warned that in the event of "threat to territorial integrity" the Russian Federation Moscow will apply nuclear weapons. "And it's not bluff," the dictator added.
And its recognition of "referendums" in the occupied areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region, even before their beginning, - although the result of the "voting" is known in advance, - shows that even the threat of territorial integrity can be struck by the Armed Forces in these regions. Putin promised the Russians "partial" mobilization, - they say, only those in stock and have army experience. But in its relevant decree there is no restrictions on this process.
But there is one point that the Kremlin did not publish. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained that the number of future mobilized-300 thousand. The need for these forces, which is one third exceeding the approximate number of the primary grouping of the Russian Federation, which began a full -scale invasion, he explained paradoxically.
They say that during the "operations" of the Armed Forces lost 100 thousand from the initial 200 thousand of their soldiers, so additional 300,000 were put under the gun. But "all the Nativ satellite group works against us: more than 70 military and more than 200 civilian satellites are exploring the location of our units. " The minister added that the mobilization resource of the Russian Federation is 25 million people.
In this regard, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Putin sees that his units are simply scattered. He needs a multimillion -dollar army. Because he sees that most of those who invade us are just running away. He wants to drown Ukraine in the blood, in particular, in the blood of his soldiers. " Also, the Ukrainian leader called "referendums" fake, and added that he did not believe that Putin would apply nuclear weapons.
What should Ukraine be expected - both on the front line and in the field of international support? NV, together with experts, modeled the most real scenarios of events. The consequences for Ukraine of a bad scenario for Ukraine after Putin's statements for mobilization cannot be, convinced by Alexander Kovalenko, a military expert on information resistance. After all, he said, in Russia it will not be possible to collect the number of mobilized ones they plan.
And even if it succeeds - where to teach them, what to provide them? "Putin has announced 300,000, but they should all be provided with weapons, equipment, equipment and more, if units are formed," the expert NV said. - 300 thousand - the actual number of units of personnel who participated for 7 months of war in Ukraine. At the beginning of the invasion, it was 180 thousand personnel concentrated near our borders by Russia and Belarus, as well as on the temporarily occupied peninsula of Crimea.
And then there were constant rotations and restoration of combat capability, allocation for the restoration of units, etc. ”. Therefore, to provide 300,000 mobilized, you need thousands of pieces of equipment of completely different nomenclature. And this is not enough for Russia even for those who are fighting now. Therefore, "partial" mobilization, according to Kovalenko, is a problem, first of all, for the Russian Federation.
Because it not only raises the issue of providing, but also about forced, even repressive mobilization - using the elements of legislation, which on the eve of Putin's statement in the Russian Federation made more violently relatively different mobilized, servicemen and deserters. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov also notes that the issue of mobilization for the Russian Federation will be difficult.