"Referendums" or Putin raises the rates as much as possible
The fact that today the 20th, and "voting" will pass even without a screen of similarity to the electoral process, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will not embarrass. Does he hurry up and try to raise the rates as much as possible? Therefore, there are several reasons: 1. Blackmail using energy topics, radiation threats, destabilization of the food market does not produce results. 2. The area of influence of the Russian Federation and its political weight began to melt.
This was demonstrated by the Shoos Forum, which became a cold shower for Putin. Even the "closest allies" began a drift from Russia. If this process is not stopped, it may be late in six to eight months. It could be stopped by a demonstration of strength on the front. But everything is sad for Russia. 3. The Russian agitation machine has never been able to explain to the population what happened in Kharkiv region. Convenient "defeat formula", which can be represented as "victory".
Moreover, even the thesis of "redeployment" has already fallen apart: the invaders declared stabilization along the Oskil River, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine have long been forced this water obstacle. 4. Against this background it is necessary to "throw the bone" of radicals. And, on the other hand, to give an image of victory for the population. According to Kremlin technologists, the format of some analogue of "Crimean" can work. 5.
An attempt to force the Armed Forces to launch a new phase of the offensive (within two weeks) and thus create the preconditions for partial failure of the campaign. This will try to return the initiative and smooth the negative from the failure in Slobozhanshchina. 6. If there is no positive in paragraph 5, then the announcement of the territories "its" creates the preconditions not about "your" but about "war".
Like, Ukraine "attacked" the Russian Federation and, as a consequence, to intensify mobilization measures. 7. This is "Hour" for those who call themselves allies of Russia. City, at least Belarus. The same thesis: the Russian Federation declares the territory "its" and declares the attack of "Russian territory", trying to put into effect points of the contract on collective security. 8. Referendums create a new topic "Invitation to Conversation", at least some of the EU countries.
Russia threatens the scaling of "conflict" (as a war is still called a number of politicians) and is trying to start discussing how to "prevent it. " In short, Putin needs freezing of war with a positive day and compromise from Ukraine. He already explained logic. I briefly repeat: stabilization of my situation (power), restoration of combat capability and preparation for the next stage.
However, the calculation that "freezing" will cause a political crisis in Ukraine and reduce the volume of external support. Accordingly, you can return to the theme of the war for five to six months, but with another balance of power. However, Putin's choice between bad and very bad. Doing nothing means to wait for another slap from the Armed Forces, to see the growth of dissatisfaction with radicals and to lose the image of "warlord, leader". The referendum is also risk.
To miss another blow from the Armed Forces, for example, immediately after the announcement of the results "for Russia" - the scale (and the effect of) such defeat will be several times greater than they were observed in the Kharkiv region. And finally, there is another aspect. And if the blackmail and raising the bets does not work? Completely.
That is, the Russian Federation announces "accession", but no one goes to the dialogue, the occupation and "increase of the territory of Russia" is not recognized. The Armed Forces strikes. The Russian Federation asks for assistance in the CDU and receives a refusal. Agree, the countries of Central Asia, Armenia are not at all out of their hands into the Russian adventure.
Are the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko? The Kremlin will press, realizing that the involvement of Lukashenko will partially solve the issue of time for mobilization. But there are "but". In particular, a review of Turkey's position (and her President Recep Erdogan may not recognize "referendums. More precisely, he is most likely not recognized) and China (for which such an adventure also looks" not too beautiful "). And finally, there is such a thing as moods Inside.
Lukashenko is well aware that to climb deeper into the Russian adventure means to create a real perspective to lose power quickly enough. Because the political construction of external influence of the Russian Federation is scattered for many years. And the Kremlin will show the inability to mobilize on its side even a state that was perceived as Russian satellites.