"There is a conflict between Putin and Shogu." Any course of the dictator aggravates his situation-interview with the political scientist Transfiguration
- Pseudo -referendums in Russia occupied by the Ukrainian territories will take place on September 23-27. We understand what and for what these guliers, collaborators do. They believe that when they are taken to Russia, it means that they are "in the house". And why is it why? What can be the consequences in your opinion? - Russia is also clear why he does it. Exactly with the same goals. Vladimir Putin is afraid to carry out full mobilization.
Simultaneously with the news that they are going to conduct this performance about allegedly referendums, the State Duma immediately in the second and third reading adopted amendments that sharply strengthen the criminal law against servicemen. For refusal to participate, in fact, in hostilities will now be given three years in Russia. There are up to 10 years of age [punishment] for various violations in one way or another with hostilities. Therefore, they will be driven to the front much more.
And it all gives out the picture quite simple, Vladimir Putin includes the scenario "We declare all this in its own territory", then begins with double, with triple efforts to swing a nuclear bomb, threaten tactical nuclear weapons and declare that when the Armed Forces continues the offensive, we, the Russian Federation. , let's strike tactical nuclear weapons. This is their position. It seems to me that in principle there is no point in responding seriously.
And it should be react to this as a performance, reporting that with the same success Ukraine can announce a referendum on accession to the Poltava region of Belgorod, Kursk regions, the Primorsky region of the Russian Federation and territories. I believe that the Odesa Film Studio will remove the rollers about how the Russians vote, better and better than the propagandists will do. More precisely, it is most likely done. I am sure that these rollers have already been removed.
- I have the impression that these pseudo -referendums finally delegitize the occupation of Crimea. Russia argued that the expression of expression there really passed that the Crimeans always wanted to Russia, and that there would be an apocalypse if something fell in the Crimea.
Do you not think that when these referendums pass, the Russian Federation will declare occupied territories by Russia, it finally calls into doubt that Russia can dispose of Crimea? - It seems to me that there is no special doubt.
Moreover, Vladimir Putin is truly all his actions, starting on February 24 at least, delegitimize all those small, directly say, but still some (illusory for many-former) feeling that Crimea was part of Russia at least with There is not a certain appearance that the legitimacy, but at least it is called in all world media annexation, not occupation. Now this same occupation will be for all feelings. But the most important thing was done earlier.
Millions of Ukrainian refugees in the EU have forever closed the question of how the Crimea is de -occupation. As Ukraine will decide, so it will be. And the question of where millions of Russians who have entered Crimea after annexation will go and what will be with those who accepted Russia for themselves - it will be a question of these residents and Ukraine when de -occupation will take place.
There will be no serious international intervention, international compulsory control, which many experts, especially the Western ones, said, after millions of Ukrainian refugees in the EU. Therefore, Putin completely destroyed all restraint mechanisms for the de -occupation of Crimea. And you are right: these referendums will be the last step.
Because the Crimean so-called referendum, which, of course, is not, because in the occupied territory it is impossible to carry out free vote, will cease to be seriously perceived by anyone; and is devalued in the eyes for these few days. - We understand that the Donetsk region is not completely occupied, now there is a partial de -occupation of this area. The same thing happens with Luhansk region. Kharkiv - released, a piece of Kherson - released.
Can the Kremlin be swollen? Does the Kremlin use it simply to blackmail, say that "let's put it up quickly, otherwise we will take it"? - I think that no one is ready to put up now, because there is still a statement [of the Russian dictator, Prescribe Dmitry] Peskov that no negotiation opportunity is now being seen. It is clear that the Kremlin has the most rigid blackmail role in this situation. Obviously, it is that he presses on starting any negotiations, but hardly now.
Everyone knows that the date of potential negotiations is somewhere in November and perhaps the G20 summit. This date is constantly discussed. But in this case, they can definitely be shaken back at any moment. That is why there is no practical sense at all seriously for these games and performances. Because, first, you can not hold any referendums.
Secondly, these referendums can be given such answers that will not oblige anything, including these occupied territories and these Gaulayters, who are delivered by Russian occupation soldiers. Moreover, if they make decisions in these referendums, as if they will vote for joining Russia (we understand that there is no one to vote there in many places), it does not oblige Russia at all.
This game can be played for a very long time, in several stages, every time they are blackmailing and saying that “But if you do not agree with us now, we will accept a delegation of Donetsk and Lugansk“ People's Republics ”in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin will speak with them personally , and then it will be possible that we recognize them. " The blackmail can be multilevel. And I think it should be deconstructed initially.
- It all happens, of course, in the context of the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv region. How has the balance of power in the Kremlin changed after we saw how the Russian army fled? - There is a feeling that the Kremlin has a new additional conflict, which was talked about from the beginning of the war, but which was not really. There was an internal silent confrontation - this is the maximum.
And now there is an obvious conflict between the political part of the Kremlin, which is responsible for the occupied territories and the military. The military is clearly not ready to follow all the political instructions of people who are unable to provide favorable conditions for the military (from diplomatic and political positions). The military does not want to be extreme. Obviously, an attempt to hang all dogs on Defense Minister Sergei Shoig continues.
Despite the fact that it is very rooted in the Russian authorities and politics, a person who came there long before Vladimir Putin became someone in his life. And now it can start to be felt, in particular, to make Putin more unleashed. The Kremlin signals that Putin himself does not want a rigid solution. This is, of course, an obvious lie: it is the driver of all rigid decisions. And that's where such a conflict is raised. Now there is a conflict between Putin and Shoigu.
Putin is after Kharkiv defeat in a position called Tsugzwang. Any course of it worsens his situation, and time is enough. Therefore, he is stuck in this trap, he cannot take away troops, he cannot declare general mobilization.
And he begins to invent the scripts simply to change the agenda, and while the essence of the case may be possible; And at the same time-to try to slow down in any way the offensive, which continues in the Kherson region gradually, to give the military regroup and not to increase the confrontation between the political leadership and the military. - For the first time we saw that this taboo was shot that Putin cannot be bark, we can not speak badly about the great leader.
We really saw it from the "Vatniki" after the events in Kharkiv region. It seems that Putin went to the "Vatnik" at the moment when Russian troops were hit by rockets at the Kharkiv TPP. These ultra-nationalist telegrams have accelerated that it was urgent to beat the critical infrastructure, to throw away bombs. And it happened. He did not do so before. What do you think is some serious symptom? - It seems to me that this is a hysterical reaction on his part, revenge.
And for the most part, we are well aware that both Mariupol and Kharkiv are responsible for the fact that they were mostly Russian -speaking cities. Putin personally considers the inhabitants of these cities traitors, which he practically spoke openly. In his picture of the world, it is, so to speak, his people who betrayed him. He was very counting on them. And this inadequate perception of reality is greatly exacerbated.
I am sure that he went here and reached for radical supporters of the war, but on the other hand, Peskov broke them very clearly, many of them had to carefully apologize (for example, Gennady Zyuganov), to explain that they were not generally mobilizing at all They meant these two days when they were rigidly expressed. Of course, Putin really wanted to carry out general mobilization. But the situation in society is such that society is not ready to support it. He understands it.
He tries to shift the moods in society and gradually teach him to the inevitability of mobilization. But this moment has not come. And he does not need criticism from radicals. I am sure that they were much tougher, unofficial signals from a series of calls of the chief propagandist of the Kremlin Alexei Gromov, who swears very well with a mat on everyone who is below his hierarchy. I am sure that there were three -story mats to all propagandists who said something extra.