Putin doesn't want to simply turn off EU gas. Need to play a little in your favorite blackmail
At lunch, on September 27, an environmental disaster could be stated in the Baltic Sea: water in Denmark's territorial waters turned into gas with gas. The spiciness of the situation is added by the fact that gas pipelines no longer pumped gas. The sea gas out of pipes came into the sea. The north stream-2 never started through sanctions, and the North Stream-1 stopped Russia itself. As part of the blackmail of Europe and the whole world known as the code name "Bomb Voronezh".
Thus, the situation looked absolutely idiotic. Someone blew up gas pipelines that did not work. It did not add problems for the EU. The very fact of the gas pipelines has led to an increase in gas value by only 6%. When this happens, you always look at the Kremlin. But even here motivation was difficult to find. They went into the version that in this way the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom is protected from future lawsuits for lack of gas to the EU. But everything turned out to be easier.
And it cleared less than a day when we saw the second part of the margin ballet. Namely - Gazprom's statement that Ukrainian Naftogaz is filed with a Russian company in court (again), it is a manifestation of unfriendly policy and will cause Russia to impose sanction against Naftogaz, and therefore, Gazprom will not be able to transit gas in the Ukrainian gas transportation system. . And gas to Europe will only go through the narrow pipe of the Turkish stream, which it comes to Hungary.
As a result, gas prices have increased significantly, adding 19%to the day, rising from $ 1700 to $ 1900 per thousand cubic meters. However, against the backdrop of a recent decline from $ 3500 per thousand cubic meters is not so surprisingly. Coincidence? One day, two potential gas routes to Europe are undermined and transited into the territory of Ukraine. Not that it is a surprise that Gazprom will switch off the gas closer to winter.
Simply, as it turned out, the Kremlin does not just want to switch off the gas. They want to play their favorite blackmail a little before. One way or another, Gazprom's statement completely removed the question - who blew up three of the four branches of the "northern streams". The boys made a confession. Not really, however, hiding it. Now it is easier to imagine what we will see in the third act of this performance.
Russia may start threatening to Naftogaz sanctions, which should be stopped by gas transit. Traditional "either you will remove sanctions or we will introduce your own. " Either you start negotiating or we will freeze you. Nothing new. Negotiations, escaping. Raise the rates. The traditional method of negotiation by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin A la Peterskaya. Otherwise, Russia simply cannot pursue politics. Only by force. What does Putin put? That Europe is still weak.
That the economic crisis will unfold everything in its direction. What threat of recession, lobbyists will be able to sell power. That the threat of tariff squares will force the EU leadership to crawl to the Kremlin. That Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban will finally be able to blackmail Europe. The trouble that Putin is late. Europe has already accepted the fact that the winter without Russian gas will have to be passed. She filled the repositories. Launched energy savings programs.