Dialogue of opportunities. As the United States push the Russian Federation to negotiate
The crisis in a partially recognized Kosovo was caused by local authorities, who wanted to force Serbian citizens to use only documents and autonomists of the state model, not Serbian. In response, the Serbs, who lived about 5%in Kosovo, began to build barricades and fired police. In support of Serbs, official Belgrade stated that he was ready to defend them. The escalation was avoided after meeting the Kosiv government with US Ambassador Jeffrey Govenier.
He asked to delay the introduction of new rules with documents by September 1. This situation is just one example of how in the Balkans a fire from the fire supported by Russia can easily ignite. And the main partner of the Kremlin in this is the President of Serbia Alexandar Vuchich. He, however, tries to sit on two chairs at once: keeping good relations with the West, because Serbia still seeks to become an EU member and support the local right and demonstrate friendship with Putin.
Currently, the situation in Kosovo is, first, an unfulfilled chance to prove himself to be a vica: he would have to act-to start a war in the Balkans, and secondly-another proof that the situation is controlled not by Russia there, no matter how she wanted it , and the USA. However, the tension in Kosovo is more local, albeit demonstrative. More global and even nuclear, unfolded in parallel.
For the last few days, millions of people around the world have been watching the visit of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi on Taiwan. And while her aircraft sat at Taipei Airport, hundreds of experts thought, which the world community became witnesses: provocations or the beginning of the war, threats or Washington and Beijing's willingness to speak at another level. In Moscow, this visit was followed as ever. He was written about politicians and propagandists.
"Some people have to reassure someone," for example, Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov wrote in anticipation of the American woman. The Director of the North America of the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism Alexander Kraev says that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a check for both China and the United States. It compares the current situation with the Cold War, when the two great powers decided to walk on thin ice to determine the boundaries that each side allows.
And in the end it became clear: Beijing is ready to miss the ball, despite all the threats on his part. And there may be several reasons, but most importantly: Xi Jinping, unlike Vladimir Putin, evaluates the possible consequences of aggression. And China, unlike Russia, does not need to prove its importance. Therefore - despite all the expectations of Moscow - Beijing would hardly decide to solve the war. Both events were not directly related to Ukraine, but important for Kiev.
And not only because situations in the Balkans and the Pacific are trying to compare with the situation in Ukraine. "For Americans, Ukraine's struggle against Russian invasion and Taiwan's struggle against Chinese autocracy is part of the same struggle: the struggle of free democratic countries against authoritarian dictatorial regimes," says Alexander Kraev. While in Taiwan Pelosi, she said that the states should support Taiwan in his protection of democracy and freedom.
And she remembered Ukraine, her visit to Kiev and his passion for President Vladimir Zelensky - "how the people defend democracy for Ukraine and democracy around the world. " "Traveling to Taiwan, we honor our democracy: we reiterate that Taiwan's freedom - and all democracies - must be respected," Nancy Pelosi said. Therefore, increasing Chinese pressure on TaiBay will increase the help of the United States not only Taiwan but also Ukraine.
And it will be part of the confrontation between the US, China and Russia. But this confrontation is unlikely to try to negotiate with Beijing and Moscow. The fact that the US is already offered Russia to sit at the negotiation table is obvious. But there is an interest in another realm - nuclear.
"Against the backdrop of the impossibility of achieving the Russian army of any adequate goals, we witnessed directly the enchanting of powerful offensive of Russian propaganda, especially in the part of nuclear weapons. The offensive was rapid The fact - nuclear topics became relevant again, " - says Alexander Kraev, director of the North America program, Ukrainian prism of foreign policy. In the time of President Donald Trump, nuclear restrictions have expired or were terminated.
"The end of the system came first because of Russian violations of all possible conditions of these arrangements," the expert explains. The administration of Joe Baiden has already tried to use the topic of nuclear weapons in conversations with the Russian Federation. In January 2022, the US and Russia negotiations in January 2022 were one of the issues of nuclear weapons. At that time, Wendy Sherman, a US Secretary of State, arrived from the United States to negotiation.
She is not just an experienced diplomat, but also one of the authors of the text of the North Korea agreement, aimed at stopping this country's efforts on the way to nuclear weapons, as well as in 2011, for President Barack Obama, she headed the US side in nuclear negotiations with nuclear negotiations Iran. Sherman managed to achieve the signing of the agreement between Iran and the US, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, China and Russia.
At the same time in Geneva it turned out that nuclear weapons are the only topic that is ready to talk to Moscow. "What did it say to experienced American diplomats? Popi), the true state of affairs is far from this ideal. And so, here the Russians can be pressed, " - adds Kraev. But there was a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and any treaty with Russia was not on time. Now the Americans have seen the opportunity again. In Washington, they mentioned nuclear weapons again.
On August 1, the White House website appeared: President Baiden Administration is ready to discuss with Russia a system of nuclear weapons control, which will replace the S-3-a treaty between Russia and the United States on the mutual reduction of arsenals ). In addition, the US was invited to join the talks and China.
At the same time, Washington emphasized that Russia's aggression against Ukraine frankly violates the world order, and therefore on the eve of nuclear negotiations should demonstrate their readiness for them. "The negotiation requires a bona fide partner, ready to act. And the cruel and uncontrollable aggression of Russia in Ukraine has broken peace in Europe and is an encroachment on the fundamental principles of international order," said Joe Baiden's statement.
And in response to it, Russia did not reject proposals. And even more: Russian President Vladimir Putin said that "nuclear war should never be resolved," and Russia "fully fulfills the obligation under the Nuclear weapons and bilateral agreements from the United States to reduce nuclear weapons. " China also commented on the White House's proposal, they say, they are ready to continuously exchange information with other parties on this issue, which depends on global strategic stability and safety.