The Ministry of Defense of Russia refused the idea of surrounding the Armed Forces in Bakhmut - isw (fighting map)
"The deployment of low -quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut indicates that the Russian MO largely refused to surround a significant number of Ukrainian forces there," the message reads.
Analysts recalled that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation began a wider deprioritization of the Bakhmut effort by January 2023, when efforts were interrupted at the recruitment at the Wagner PEC, which probably prompted the owner of a private military company Eugene Prigogine since February 2023.
According to American analysts, in March and April, the Russian Federation briefly allocated more resources to the Bakhmut Front, sending T-90 tanks to Bakhmut and Russian Air Air Force (VAT) and transferring mobilized reservists to Wagner positions. Prigogine stated on April 24 that only irregular units that were degraded were launched to keep the flanks of Bakhmut.
According to analysts, the inability of these units to accomplish even this limited task indicates that Russian flanks in Bakhmut and other similar sections of the front are probably vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattack. "The distribution of MO forces in combination with changes in the geometry of battle space also implies that the danger of Russia's surroundings significant Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut may have passed," the report said.
Analysts believe that Wagner's forces will most likely continue to carry out frontal attacks in Bakhmut, which will allow the Ukrainian forces to carry out an organized departure from threatening areas in a smaller partial environment rather than face a large -scale environment. ISW believes that successful localized Ukrainian counterattacks have obviously limited Russian offensive efforts in Bakhmut as of May 11.
Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian forces had carried out 15 ground attacks in Bakhmut and in the area of Stupochka village (13 km southwest of Bakhmut), which significantly reduced the number of reports of Russian land attacks in the Bakhmut area.
According to analysts, Russian warships were criticized by Russian 4th and 374th Motorized Rifle Brigades (2nd Army Corps) for leaving their positions northwest of the mite during Ukrainian counterattack and said that the forces of Wagner had taken the former positions The brigade, to prevent deep penetration into the Russian lines, probably deprived the power of the mercenaries of personnel, which could otherwise be aimed at offensive operations in Bakhmut.
"Wagner's financier" Yevgeny Prigogin said that Wagner forces need to move only 625 meters to reach the western entrance to Bakhmut, which indicates that Prigogine does not want to completely abandon his purpose - to complete the capture of Bakhmut - in favor of protection From local Ukrainian counterattacks, "the ISW report reads.
It is noteworthy that the Volunteer Battalion of the Russian Federation "Alga" of the Republic of Tatarstan (a part of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps), according to reports, lost connection with the affiliate channels of social networks after the retreat on May 9. Alga battalion is one of the two elements of the 72nd brigade; There is currently no information about whether the second element of the brigade has been defeated or retreated - the Hammer Volunteer Battalion.
We will remind, according to the analysts of Deep State, the forces of Ukraine's defense managed to carry out successful offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Soledar Donetsk region. Ukrainian defenders took three positions of the invaders.