The question of time. Who and when will lift a new rebellion against Putin
On June 24, 200 km from Moscow, the leader of PEC "Wagner" Yevhen Prigogin announced that he was deploying a military column and returning back to field camps and permanent dislocation points. Less than a day, the so -called "march of justice", mercenaries took full control of the city of Rostov together with the headquarters of the Southern Military District of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, military objects in the Voronezh region.
The reason for this decision was, according to Prigogine, the unwillingness to "shed the blood of the Russians". Subsequently, it became known that the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Oleksandr Lukashenko became the mediator in the conflict resolution-as if Prigogine agreed to move to Belarus, and all participants of the rebellion were promised amnesty. As of June 26, 2023, there are no information about the location of the prison. However, the criminal case against him did not go anywhere.
The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation continues to investigate the organization of armed rebellion. For her part, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar informed information about the overturning of the Wagnerians who participated in the unsuccessful rebellion, to the east of Ukraine.
"From what we see: during the activation of events, a political crisis in the Russian Federation, they gathered troops from the East and tried to move them to the Moscow region," the painter said, "because the events were very quickly exhausted. The troops are returned to the east, "she said on a broadcast of the Telvaron.
According to military expert Oleg Starikov, the forces of Wagner PEC will not spray, because it is a powerful military formation that has demonstrated its combat capability in many military conflicts. Their experience and skills need the management of the Ministry of Defense. In addition, it should not be forgotten that the "Wagnerivtsi" provides all cash flows from Africa - the extraction of diamonds, rare earth materials.
"Those who did not support the rebellion will be disbanded by the Ministry of Defense, and the rebels will go to Belarus. It is necessary to distinguish the composition of the Wagner PEC, not all criminal elements, but also professional military. So, the conditional crime will remain in Belarus, they are very profitable After all, they will fight with the guerrillas on the protest underground. The mercenaries will return to Africa, " - explains the focus of Starikov.
Political expert Oleksandr Kochetkov considers the opposite that the "Wagnets" will destroy as those who have already betrayed. "The Wagnets are scattered in other units of the Defense Ministry and destroy on the fronts in Ukraine. The commands will find and eliminate how the Wagnerivtsi did with the ORDLO commanders who went out of control," he says. It is worth noting that the Storm Z Storm fighters recorded an appeal to Prigogine, in which it was called "inhuman" for termination of rebellion.
This unit was created exclusively from Russian imposed and affiliated with the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoig. It should not be forgotten that Wagner PEC is first and foremost retired personnel military, representatives of special services who have practical combat experience. The imposed are the last turn, at the expense of which the assault units were supplemented in order not to endanger valuable personnel. However, it should be noted that Wagner PEC is not just a priget.
Putin's former cook is a co -founder, and formally a funded company. The structure and management are non -public, from open sources it is known that in addition to Dmitry Utkin (he also Wagner), the unit is commanded by Andrey Troshev (Sedoi), Alexander Kuznetsov (Ratibor), Andriy Bogatov (Broad). All three are in common photos with President Vladimir Putin. That is, they are all those who were trusted by the Russian president.
So now we have a twofold situation - military commanders who betrayed Putin and a promise to avoid punishment if the rebellion stops. However, we have not heard any guarantees from the Kremlin leaders, and Lukashenko's words are not Moscow's position. It should be understood that the fate of future rebellions depends on how the existing authorities of Russia will understand the participants and organizers.
If everything is forgiven, then Putin will once again paint in his weakness and will lose and so destroyed the reputation of a strong leader. If everyone is repressed, the Kremlin will lose an effective military pressure tool for a certain period. In addition to the Wagnets, military units in the territory of Russia were formally participated in the rebellion, because in the course of the Movement "Column Prigogine", they were joined by whole military units.
The "campaign to Moscow" confirmed that the RDC and LSR raids had previously been made - they showed the weakness of the central government, clumsiness and inadequacy in decision making. According to experts, all this in the complex creates the conditions for future armed rebellions and protests against the current authorities in Moscow. The Kremlin has already shown its weakness and made concessions.
According to Starikov, the replacement of the Chief of Staff and the Minister of Defense should soon be announced. The decision on them has already been made, but not in Putin style, as they say, to "cut from the shoulder". In addition, it should not be forgotten that Shoigu and Gerasimov are carriers of the so -called "nuclear suitcase" of the Russian Federation. "Repeating the attempt of the rebellion will definitely be," Wagner "showed that it is possible.
In the Russian Federation on tanks and armored vehicles welcome, almost with bread and salt. I think the next attempt will be definitely, but far from Moscow. These will be some local nationalists , perhaps, the RDC, if they are able to support the support of the local population, perhaps even Cadirov.