Why Putin will no longer put in the mausoleum and what is looking for a patron in China. Interview with the exhibit of Ukraine in the US Valery Chalim
Airport for the Kremlin Regional Committee or the weapon for mobilized? Olena Tribushna spoke with the diplomat, the editor-in-chief and the presenter of the YouTube channel are questions. - Let's start with emotional and Ukraine. How did you accept the statements of the Kremlin dwarfs? How should all this be perceived by Ukrainian society, what does it mean to us? Video of the day-first, you need to get out of why it appeared now.
It is obvious to me that these are the consequences of Putin's personal image and the result of his conversations with China leaders, Turkey on the highway. And I have such information, it is the previous one, but I think we will see in the coming days: Putin no longer want to see even on G20 where his arrival was planned. Therefore, these are his personal real complexes, he has been a weak strategist and tries to act as he acted earlier.
We call this raising of ponds, so far it is only a virtual lift, but it will have consequences. It is possible to evaluate all this differently, I do not believe in any words for a long time-it is obvious that the enemy should be monitored, follow him, analyze his actions, but I would call for no more listening to the Tuvinsky Corudine And to read the decrees, because the decrees at least have the power for the government, for specific economic consequences.
For example, the absence of a seventh point, the fact that it was closed is evidence that 300,000 for mobilization is a bluff. Why? And because they cannot even say how much they can mobilize. It can be 10 thousand if it can be delayed, and it may be a million, if suddenly Russian society goes for its Fuhrer on the attack. They do not know the exact data, so these numbers are closed so that it is not clear.
There is another important point from the decree that lobbied the so -called party of war, but I name it so - "a party of blackmail and exacerbation. " They have long demanded that Putin close the opportunity to Russian citizens to break contracts, because lately there were many people who just fled from the front, because even for money they do not want to give life.
Secondly, no matter how much they are mobilized, they immediately stand on the terms of the contract, and therefore it is one way ticket. Third: Putin thus relieves hawks, because recently there was an impression that he is seriously pressed from this side and he could lose power because of this confrontation. Therefore, this is designed, first of all, for internal purposes: how to keep power, how to prevent the collapse of the ruling top and how to trade with the countries of the West.
My perception of all this is: first, it is a recognition of the defeat of a "special military operation"; Secondly, it is a desire to stop at this stage, fixing his territorial hobbies-and for the auction, Lavrov went to New York; Third, Russia goes to defense, as strange as we may sound. These are all the propaganda calls they spread at the beginning of the war, covering their aggression - now they are really afraid, they were scared.
Putin's speech was the speech of frightened, confused, unsure of the results of the person. - I just wanted to ask about it. It seemed to me when I listened to him that he was not the person who declared war on February 24 at night. He was justified now, and he even had something so old, stamped in a speech. Do I want to think so really and looked like? -If we compare the performances before the start of a full-scale invasion and now, then any person will see a huge difference.
But if we capture any moments - it didn't go so much, I have not come back somewhere, then you know, this is not the main indicators for me. What alarms me - I know it exactly and saw it in practice: Putin had a good memory, and he began to lose it. I do not know that it is the consequences of stress and constant tension or age takes its own, but it loses memory. He forgets the names, dates, he has failures, and it is dangerous. This is a person who loses control.
Such a person cannot manage a nuclear state. And about changes - of course they are. Imagine the country in a real war for seven months. We are tired, so tired there. There are things that are difficult to withstand physically, and even when your feet are wiped on you - it's all noticeable, these delay in the meeting is no longer accidental, and Putin's reaction is absolutely not as it was before.
In principle, now it is important to evaluate all these personal misses, but I am more interesting to react as the deep people respond. I recently watched many films about the growth of fascism from its origins before Hitler and Mussolini came to power, as in Hungary, the Nazis came to power, and I can tell you that there are a lot of parallels. Russia goes the same way, even on a time frame, but somehow everything is partially.
This is how "partial mobilization" is such "partial" and everything else. They have some low -Furer, anecraine, and there is a "under-" hope that this people may not yet be sick, and if there in the next weeks everyone who thinks more or less critically, will not run from the country … It is necessary to be a completely squeezed person, so as not to perceive obvious facts. Well, it cannot be that there was a society in Russia with such reflected brains that they did not make up two or two.
Why did we say Putin would not go to it? Because we thought that Russian society would finally understand - such hopes were - that it could touch their loved ones. Yes, it is a twist of nuts inside Russia - Hitler did. And then know what they will do? They will look for a witch in their country. Who will they find? Hitler found the Jews, but whom Putin will choose his victims in Russia - we will see.
But in the coming months we will see very serious actions within Russia, because their main goal is to retain power. All these maneuvers, nuclear blackmail are an attempt to retain power, I am sure. Everyone who is there now is understanding that they bought a ticket in one way, and how much this train will go depends only on the circumstances that, in their opinion, they form in some way. Putin will no longer put the mausoleum. Everything, the train went.
I think he has a very difficult story in general. But it is also a challenge to us as well, because they clearly stated that they finally understood one basic thing - that everything is going on the event plan. They are already forced to play their role on this scenario, and they do not know how to get out of it. And this panic is caused by the fact that their script failed and the event scenario works. I want to say one more moment - nuclear blackmail. It is important.
We can not finally say anything when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons - only from the point of view of specialists can you try to somehow evaluate the actions of the enemy. What can be said for sure - with high probability now there will be no use of ballistic missiles with nuclear components. I tell you it cannot be done at this stage. Maybe it was some point, but not now. Now about weapons of mass destruction as a whole.
Russia calls it "weapons of mass destruction" according to the Soviet tradition, when conditionally small charges of tactical nuclear weapons could be used on the battlefield. Unfortunately, this concept remained in the Russian army. According to this concept, an attack even from howitzers, or from anything, nuclear charge, after which, a few hours, Russian troops come to this affected area.
Do you understand what to apply it in Soviet times and what is it now? I would like to see how their soldiers go to the area of nuclear damage. Putin believes that his threats are not bluff. He hopes to find a way to demonstrate the world that he is so frozen, so ready for everything, to show that he can do it . . . But I do not think he will be able to strike a nuclear strike in other countries and even in Ukraine. How they come up with - I don't know.
I assume that they can blow something over the Black Sea or somewhere in myself, to demonstrate something. But how to do so that you do not get a powerful massive blow on myself - I do not know. We understand that in the case of something like that or chemical weapons, or less nuclear charge, I will assure you, the US accession to the war, because it will not stop another way in the US. This means rockets from aircraft, which means B-52 will fly and beat on military sites of Russia.
There is no other way to counter. Putin knows that, so it's bluff. But he believes that he will be able to demonstrate something at some stage. Another point in the use of tactical nuclear weapons - the return of teams is the same as ballistic missiles. There are a number of people involved in the process. I spoke with the people they were training, who they did in the relevant units, and they explained to me all this chain.
There is no guarantee that at some stage someone will not refuse, but still it is psychologically easier. But all these charges are tracked. Believe me, if suddenly there is such a real threat, then the first calls on the red line will immediately be in the Kremlin. This line works, they are constantly connected - Russia with America is constantly in contact. Putin has already been said, and as soon as he starts to move these charges, carry them from the warehouse for use, he will be a call.
If he does not hear the calls, it will be announced throughout the world - that in the next 24 hours there is a threat of nuclear strike. Therefore, we will be warned in any case. You will not do this secretly. I would not now analyze how many people do, the consequences of strokes, something about gas masks. Before fasting about gas masks, check that your tank is seasoned and at least make minimal food supplies. And one pill of iodine will not give anything at all.
Today, the more threatening those blowing on infrastructure on civilians. There is no mass destruction weapons, and mass destruction - is there, you know? They already use prohibited ammunition. What are cassette charges? What is a tornado that slams in areas and kills civilians? And what are kilotonic aircraft that destroy people? We have killed tens of thousands of people without [use] weapons of mass destruction, so we have it now, first of all, to look.
Putin is still counting on Ukraine's surrender. Because if our surrender, the defense of Russia, and then they will fall like Yanukovych from the egg. Why? It is a psychology of this type of people. They are all macho, until they reach a critical situation, and then they pour, just slide like an egg on a chair in a Putin bunker. So it slipped.
- Is this new round of aggression by the Kremlin the West frightens or mobilizes? Whether they have resources, whether they have not yet given us everything that they could give from a military point. For example, can they do things like those frozen three hundred billion Russian dollars to confiscate and give Ukraine? It has already sounded.
Are they capable of it? - I think if the event's answer is not frightened, and the first statements are certified that no, then we will see in the near future the strikes in the Crimea in the Crimea as a response to Putin's blackmail: “Stop and look for a way out, and not frighten the world again with your threats. " I think we will see many things that Americans did not want to do, but now they will be forced, and it was Putin who forced them. Why does he speed up this? I do not understand.
On February 24, I immediately said: Putin was trapped. So it is: he was trapped, now he realized that he had been trapped, and he did not see it. Americans tell him a way out, Scholz, Macron, Erdogan, and he is a weak man. Therefore, the only way is to increase the pressure on it. There is no other way. Good news: all the forecasts made by colleagues, including in the West that the war can last for us for years - this scenario will no longer work. There will be no war for years.
Putin accelerates the processes, so we will see the main solution next year. It was Putin who made this pleasure for the whole world that will not be stretched for such a long time. Of course, they leave this hole of opportunities for Putin all the time, and unfortunately they will leave. But if it was a window before, now there will be a hole. There will be no explanation why tanks are not provided. There are many tanks in the US.
There is such a joke in the states that Congress looked at order four more tanks, and the military say: where do we put them? Because they really have nowhere to put them there. I think things like tanks, planes, operative-tactical missiles, drones will now give. It is only necessary for them to realize that such a slow "roast" of this frog is not needed. Now you need to concentrate everything. Is everything you need? No, because they were not ready for such a large -scale war with such intensity.
But to concentrate everything that is, next month is possible. Everything that was not given for political reasons. If we talk about longer things that still need to be released in the factories - it will be next. But the main thing: the Kremlin is no longer playing their plan, everything is now thinking how to keep themselves, it is a purely physical survival. Obviously, this is impossible in Russia.
I think they are already looking for spare aerodromes in those countries that can theoretically take them after the collapse. And it is obvious that it is easier to do if you raise stakes - then you can still talk to the Chinese, with other countries of the world that still think, without the fullness of information that Russia will somehow be able to overcome. Putin is afraid to be in the eyes of his citizens not "macho", not a "alpha male", but-weak.
Here is the egg that lies in the bunker and there is a needle. But the body of this "barn immortal" is in the Crimea. He said, "You will beat the Russian territories - everything, then I will show you Kuzkin. " We need to beat the Crimea. In the coming days, to show: "Turn your great Ego shoe in one place and make sure there in your bunker. " There must be a powerful military response.
Of course, we do not have such an opportunity - and it is not necessary - to adjust the plans of military political plans, but we need to find military means without attracting great human resources and responding to these threats. As I see this package: strikes in the Crimea, in military objects; Providing Ukraine with long -standing missiles, maybe without an announcement, but to see that it works for all Putin bluff scattered. That's what you need to do immediately.
But it is necessary to take everything seriously, the hatch is not suitable here. This is a serious war. You can't just smile and say, "Putin, you no longer intimidate us. " Well, of course, it does not intimidate, but countermeasures and specific actions must be prepared. We are ready to play long. It will be good if the event will also be ready to play for a long time and, most importantly - how the position of neutral countries will change now.
You have seen that fashion, an Indian leader, says that the war should already be stopped. China says: Let's stop. That is, they gave Putin the opportunity to win. But our victories at the front break all this Putin tactics. - I just have a question about China. Why Putin went to the escalation right now, after meeting with Xi Jinping on the highway, after Patrushev flew to Beijing recently for something. Is not weapons? Haven't they promised them there? - A good question.
Theoretically, Chinese weapons can come to Russia through North Korea. When they said that North Korea would send something there, it was funny. What will North Korea send there?! But not only Putin meets with Jinping - he and Americans meet, Joseph Baiden's meeting is being prepared, much more important for re -election of Si Jinping for a third term than meeting with Putin. Putin Who is? Vassal China. And Joseph Biden is an opponent and a partner, so it is a completely different caliber.
Imagine that the Americans have cut off from China by 30% - this is a collapse of China. Beijing absolutely understands what is at stake. Will not supply China weapons. I think they probed the soil, studied China's position now how much they can invade their results at this stage and how much China may "notice" their further actions. It seems to me that such emotions are evidence that they did not agree with China. I perceive these Putin statements as an image on everyone.
Rather, even the insults are not on the states, not in France or Germany, but an insult to China and India. Did you see Putin sitting and talking to India's prime minister? It was very sad for Putin. And Patrushev? Well, Patrushev seems to be such a "super -scan", "hawk" than Putin, but he is definitely not a fool. I think he just agrees on the conditions - from their point of view it is not a surrender, but some way out of the war.