"Will they be friends against China"? Is it possible that New Zealand will join the Aukus military alliance
All four countries are, as they say, natural allies - English -speaking democracies that share common values, the interaction between which is enshrined in a number of treaties and unions. After all, all four of these states, as well as Canada, are included in the Five Eyes - intelligence alliance. However, there are several "but". First of all, it is nuclear, more precisely, the nuclear policy of Wellington.
Although New Zealand Prime Minister Jasinda Ardn, after the announcement of Aukus, spoke in support of "more active participation in the UK and the United States in the region", she also stated that Australian atomic submarines would not allow to enter the inner waters of New Zealand (ie within) 12 sea miles). The ecological agenda of New Zealand, a guardian of ecological order in the southern Pacific Ocean, plays an important role here.
New Zealand is a member of the Pacific Forum and considers himself responsible for the development of the "climatic" agenda of the sub -region, where atomic weapons are absolutely unacceptable. Theoretically, this can be corrected by reformatting Aukus into a defensive alliance in the broad sense of the word, that is, to remove the focus of attention from atomic weapons and create a kind of updated Anzus + 1 (Australia, New Zealand, USA + UK).
Secondly, the armed forces of New Zealand are seriously inferior to the United States, the United Kingdom and even Australia, so Wellington will be able to play an equivalent role in the Union-as Japan or South Korea could theoretically. For New Zealand, the advantage of Aukus is obvious: support in the development and modernization of the Armed Forces, as well as strengthening of defense capability.
In general, the armed forces of New Zealand are completely correlated with its geopolitical status. The political weight of New Zealand in the international arena is small, which is explained by the geographical distance of the state from the world centers of strength and limited resources.
New Zealand pursues foreign policy according to the concept of a "small state", which implies that small states seek to create equal and stable relations with more powerful states and prevent any action that complicates this relationship.
It is interesting that the national party of the country, which represents conservative circles, is traditionally focused on Western democracy, and the Labor Party usually stands for world humanitarian values, internationalism and pacifism, which has always provided sympathy from countries and socialist countries. This year's Premier, Jasinda Ardn, by the way, heads the Labor Party.
New Zealand does not seek to resist China, although it sometimes solidaries with the Allies and is concerned about increasing the impact of China in the southern Pacific, which violates the balance of power. An important difference between "small countries" is the priority of economic interests over political, which is inherent in New Zealand. "Foreign Policy is Trade" - this principle has been adhered to by Wellington for many years.
It was this foreign policy that contributed to the active increase in trade with China, which in 2020 became the largest trading partner of New Zealand. Exports to China amounted to almost $ 11 billion - China occupied a share of 27%. Imports of goods from China - almost $ 9 billion, China occupied a share of 22%. The second largest partner is Australia with a bilateral turnover of almost $ 10 billion, the third is the United States (almost $ 8 billion), and the fourth is Japan (almost $ 4.
5 billion). The paradox of the roles of New Zealand in the Indo-Pacific region is that, despite the development of the economy, the country is on a geopolitical periphery as a minor player who lavizes between the great powers. This motivates for the development of an independent foreign policy course. Which, in particular, is manifested in the active Wellington policy in the southern Pacific.
Aukus is not a quad, there is no anti -Chinese focus, so there is no obstacle for Wellington, which is not desired to join the anti -Chinese coalition. Wendy Sherman, however, talking about possible expansion, sounded somewhat hesitantly. In the coming years, until the Kanberry Submarine supply agreement is implemented, there will be no agreements with Wellington.
At least, New Zealand seems to be a more promising participant than Japan, because the Chinese-Novo-Zealand relations are quite stable and equal, not burdened with the cargo of historical memory and territorial disputes, unlike Chinese-Japanese. Japan's introduction in Aukus, which, although not anti-Chinese, is still hostile to the Middle Kingdom, carries the risk of escalation of the situation in the East Chinese Sea, in the area of Senkak/Dyuydao Islands or even in the Taiwanese Strait.
The expansion of the Alliance at the expense of New Zealand will only cause a restrained, diplomatic dissatisfaction with Beijing. On the other hand, the new updated Aukus or Naukus as a defensive alliance will definitely set the influence of Beijing in the Pacific, and Jasinda Ardn does not show his willingness to join the US -headed anti -Chinese restraint, military restraint. So the idea of New Zealand's accession to Aukus is theoretical.
It is unlikely that Wellington will want to join Aukus. The United States is gaining interest in this part of the world, trying not to lose its position, which New Zealand can take advantage of independently. Defense Assessment 2021 shows that the Jasinddi government Ardn is considering the confrontation between China and the United States as a threat to New Zealand's security. In response, New Zealand tries to rely less on China in economic terms, diversifying trade.