Russia's military power doubles: Putin believes in the conquest of Ukraine - isw
"Putin has started a full -scale war and is a key player who must recognize the inability to achieve his goals with military force. Instead, he needs to negotiate. The war will continue until Putin thinks that he can impose his will by Ukraine by breaking the will Specialists. Attempts to force Ukraine and Europe to capitulate in the winter have not caused anything. The Russian army failed the offensive to capture the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, added analysts.
According to experts, Putin doubles Russia's military power to delay the war. It expands the Russian defense-industrial base and prepares various schemes of shadow mobilization. The Russian president remembers the experience of World War II - the Allied troops completely defeated the German army and reached Berlin. Japan surrendered a few months after the US has shown the ability to completely destroy the country.
"Peace agreements that put an end to three wars for unification of Germany, the civil war in the United States and Napoleonic wars simply ratified the realities created by decisive military victories. After the withdrawal an official agreement or agreement, " - made arguments to ISW. But history knows other examples.
The Deyton Agreements graduated from the Bosnian conflict, the armed conflict in Northern Ireland ended with an agreement in Belfast, and the Arab-Israeli War of the Judicial Day of 1973 was a resolution of the UN Security Council. Moscow threw most of the 300,000 mobilized and 40,000 prisoners on the front, but the results of the effort did not impress.
At present, everyone is discussing the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces and there is already an understanding that it will be evaluated at the institute. "It is not clear whether Putin will come up with these military realities. He can continue to fight, with or without pause, as much as needed to achieve all purposes. Settlement by negotiation may be unattainable, Putin will not accept the fact of inability to conquer Ukraine.
It does not put any conditions for negotiations, except for the full success of Russia, " - summarized the authors of the report. We will remind that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia on March 21 put forward regular conditions for peace talks. For this purpose it is necessary to stop the supply of Kiev Western weapons, to recognize the temporarily occupied territories in Russian and to make Ukraine a non -aligned country.