The hardest year. As prices have changed, banks in Ukraine six months after the invasion of the Russian Federation
The impact of the Ukrainian economy of Ukraine is both the loss of incomes of citizens, and a strong decline in exports and imports, a pause in the work of a number of largest industrial enterprises, the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. The government is said to be 35-40%expected to fall GDP of Ukraine as a result of the year. In this case, galloping price growth is inevitable - the NBU now predict inflation at the level of 31%.
However, there are good news-for example, stabilization of the exchange rate, a fairly strong banking sector, active work of the IT sphere of the country, resolving the situation with Ukraine's external debts-obtaining delaying for currency payments for two years. War, destroyed infrastructure, loss of territories and port stopping, rupture of logistics chains, fuel deficiency - this could not but affect prices in Ukraine.
According to the results of the year, the consumer price index can reach 31%. The last high inflation in Ukraine was in 2015 - then it reached 43. 3%. However, the government says that high prices are not such a problem. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko is convinced that for a fighting country, such a rise in prices is not anomalous. "Inflation is high enough when compared to pre -war condition.
If compared to other countries - Europe, the US, where inflation approaches ten percent indicators, our inflation 22. 2% is not so critical. That is not inflation that could be in the country, which is fighting. External conditions such that we would still be in high inflation. Breaks of supply chains, high fuel prices are all the factors that have formed from the outside. And we, like other countries, are forced to perceive it normally, " - said Sergey Marchenko.
CASE Executive Director Dmitry Boyarchuk told Focus why high prices are not a problem for the Ministry of Finance. "High inflation is now around the world. In the same Poland, inflation is 20%. Only in Russia, deflation, because there is a collapse It is possible to hide. For the Ministry of Finance inflation is not a problem, because for budget revenues it is a good. The higher the inflation, the higher the budget revenues, "says Dmitry Boyarchuk.
The expert explained that Ukraine has the opportunity to contain food prices if agricultural producers agree to allocate some part of the crop for social needs. "Agro -producers often supply products to the domestic market cheaper than the external. For fuel. We can do anything except tax instruments here. Now fuel taxes are reduced, and therefore gasoline prices are even lower than in peaceful Poland.
If excise duty, if they return the excise duty, Accordingly, it will add to inflation, which for its part will give additional profits of the Ministry of Finance, " - said Boyarchuk. In his opinion, inflation 30% in the year is quite clear and adequate. However, the final indicator depends on many factors. In particular, whether the tax burden will increase, whether there will be fuel supply in the fall and winter, as well as what will be gas prices for industry.
And, of course, one of the key factors that can affect prices is the currency market and the hryvnia to the dollar. One of the most important events in the economy of Ukraine in the six months of hostilities is the devaluation of the hryvnia. If as of February 24, the official course was at 29. 25 UAH/USD, then on August 24 - 36. 57 UAH/USD. For six months the interbank market has been undergoing foreign currency demand over its supply for six months.
"The factors on the interbank remain unchanged - the imbalance between supply and demand, which, for its part, is the result of a negative trade balance. who went abroad, they live in whole or in part at the expense of hryvnia savings. The conversion of these funds into the currency is due to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, " - explained Anna Zolotko, director of the UNEC Bank Treasury Operations Department. The National Bank is still holding the course at a fixed level.
Where the NBU goes, if the NBU releases it, no one in the words of it is to assume, the National Bank is constantly present in the foreign exchange market, but it not only sells the currency, but also buys it. According to Sergiy Kucheryav, Director of the Kredobank Liquidity Control and Securities Control Department, the trade on the interbank interbank remains within the limits of the current restrictions regulated by Resolution No. 18 of the NBU.
"In fact, interbank agreements are held in the corridor 36,5686 - 36,9343 (in most days closer to the upper limit), which corresponds to the formula" NBU rate +1%", ie the regulator buys currency from banks at the official rate of 36,5686 and sells foreign currency banks at the rate of 36. 9343 (NBU rate +1%). Since the beginning of August, the NBU remains the main player in the market where it sells currency more often to market participants.
According to the official statistics given by the National Bank, in the first 2 weeks he bought from banks $ 101 million, sold to banks - $ 1 012 million, " - said Sergey Kucherryvy. Demand for currency is formed by importing companies that are actively purchasing goods abroad.
According to the Chief Dealer of the Treasury Department and Financial Institutes of the OTP Bank Anton Kurinny, the key demand for currency is generating the import of weapons and military equipment, as well as imports of medical goods. There was some stabilization in the cash market in August-the cash dollar sales rate in the corridor is 39-41 UAH/USD. Banks note that the exchange currency deficiency in the country is influenced by the exchange rate.
"The main factor is the insufficient amount of cache, there is still a shortage of cash, so it is not possible to stabilize it below 40 UAH/USD. Plus business is a little frightened by the theoretical law on 10% of import operations. There is only one thing affecting demand now-war. Also, one of the factors is the demand from volunteers who are calculated by currency for many necessary things for the military.
We are waiting for a large offer of cache dollar from banks and their branches, since the NBU has expanded a little opportunity to sell currency through cash desks " , - said Anton Kurinny. Sergiy Kucherryvyov says that in the cash market, part of the demand for foreign currency has "crossed" for the purchase of currency with further placement on deposits at banks at a more attractive exchange rate, but this is not enough to stabilize the cash market.
Recall that many large banks already open their customers, after the expiration of the place of placement, funds are available in foreign currency - dollars or euros. However, there is a limitation on the amount - only 50 thousand UAH. "Cash rate in the range of 39-41 UAH/USD for almost two weeks is definitely a sign of stabilization of the situation in the cash segment.
Stabilizing impact on the cash market has a scheme for the purchase of foreign currency for non-cash hryvnia Banks launch this product, which makes it more accessible to Ukrainians and at the expense of competition brings the final cost of the dollar to the interbank course, " - said Anna Zolotko. No one can predict what trajectory can take the hryvnia course. After all, the course on the interbank interbank is severely limited, and it is likely that the NBU will not hurry.
Experts say that at the time of the crisis, such a limiting approach to the exchange rate is justified. "In a war, a clear course (benchmark) is needed to be guided by market participants. Complete rejection of regulation can lead to uncontrolled fluctuations, uncertainty of most enterprises and panic on the market," - warns Sergei Kucherryvy. Despite the fears, the banking sector has remained quite stable and highly liquid all six months in Ukraine.
The NBU noted that the net assets of banks in the second quarter increased by 3. 3% and approached the pre -war level. Customer funds remain the main source of stable funding of banks - the volume of hryvnia funds of individuals increased by 6. 4% for the second quarter at the expense of funds, in foreign currency - decreased by 3. 5% in dollar equivalent. Banks' funds in banks increased by 4. 3% in UAH and 14. 4% in foreign currency. According to the NBU, the total loss of the banking system was UAH 4.
6 billion. "In general, instant liquidity sector is sufficient - this means that most banks, especially large banks, have enough money to make payments and, if necessary, completely give deposits. And both hryvnia and currency liquidity are sufficient," - explained focus an associated CASE expert. Ukraine Eugene Dubogriz. But, according to him, the inflow of money and business in banks slowed down, many borrowers stopped servicing loans.
Therefore, often banks have not much money for lending, even within government programs. "In general, the situation in the sector is now stable. But there are threats to individual banks, especially for those who have large (compared to assets) volumes of refinancing NBU, which has increased significantly. And for those banks who have a large proportion of current ones in their obligations Business and deposits of the population on demand, ”says Eugene Dubogriz.
He did not deny that the new bankruptcy of banks would be new bankruptcies in the coming months. So far, during the war, the NBU has recognized two banks insolvent - Megabank and the Sich Bank. "Megabank and" Sich "are definitely not the last" military bankruptcy "banks. Banks leave the market and in peacetime - someone does not withstand competition, someone underestimates the risks. The longer the war lasts - the more risks of insolvency of individual banks.
Now the situation is The largest banks are not threatened. They also had a large margin of safety up to 24/02, and many large banks have even increased operating efficiency - they reduced costs, increased the volumes expert. In September-December, banks will continue to provide clients with financial services, to a greater extent-to serve payments, current and card accounts, deposits. The least is about lending.
Loans for individuals are still offered by bank units, and business lending to many banks is also frozen "for better times". However, banks develop certain lending programs during the war. For example, government programs for agrarians and the 5-7-9%program. According to the Ministry of Finance, 11 623 credit contracts for the total amount of UAH 46. 89 billion were concluded during the martial law in Ukraine "Available loans 5-7-9%".