Anton Gerashchenko: "If the Russian Federation applies nuclear weapons, it will turn into a plague barrack"
What do you think caused him? - In my opinion, the main purpose of Russian President Vladimir Putin was not even the defeat of the Ukrainian power system, but to show "Vatnik" - that is, the most intrinsic of his supporters - that he is strong than ever, that he has many missiles that they can harm Ukraine. This was the main task after what happened on the Crimean bridge, after retreating from Kharkiv region, after the complete absence of any success on the front.
And I will remind that since July 3, after the capture of Lisichansk, the Russians have absolutely no achievements, no progress. They are in defense and vice versa - only retreat. It is a reaction to a sharp decline in Putin's ranking, trust in him among his supporters. The main task was to show that we were "strong". The most interesting thing is that Russian propaganda is no longer ashamed to be open to the task of blows in the cities of Ukraine.
Skabyev and others on the air, screaming with joy, show footage - how rockets fall not on military facilities or even at power plants, but in the center of Kiev. This can be said to be a final turn to fascism. - What will the impact on energy infrastructure facilities will affect? Is it possible to completely deprive Ukrainians with such blows? - I would not like to tell you what to do to the enemy. But today their kings were not achieved, it was like a mosquito bite.
Maximum losses are what you have to go on fan power outages in some regions. The collapse of the power system did not happen. They had this plan for the collapse of the power system, probably only in December. If it was cold, the temperature. Now Putin has gone to show that he still has powder in powder. We will be ready for further blows to the grid, which will be more dangerous when there is frost. Because then there may be problems with heat supply.
- Did the Russian army be struck by some military facilities, as Putin said at a meeting of the Russian Security Council? - No military facility was affected on October 10. All killed and injured are civilians. In particular, a 41-year-old cyber police colonel Yuri Zakkok and a woman-doctor who has a 5-year-old son remained an orphan. Their compassion for loved ones.
- The deputy chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated that shelling on October 10 is allegedly "the first stage" and it is worth waiting for a continuation. How will you appreciate his words? - Medvedev is an alcoholic that has been drunk and who has no influence on political decisions in the Russian Federation. He is nothing more than a person who just chats without a sense. The blows will, of course, will. They want to continue to impress our infrastructure.
But their capabilities are diminishing. I am not ready to say how many Russians have rockets, but it is obvious that they do not have weapons. Such high -tech weapons as winged missiles cannot be done quickly. The term of manufacture of such a rocket is 8-10 months. They spend them exactly ten faster than they make. And I can say that they have no high -precision weapons.
Well, what is a high -precision weapon if one rocket falls into a ravine under a glass pedestrian bridge, the other - in a playground in the park? - Maybe there was a logic, to beat in civilian objects? - It is difficult for me to think about the devout dictator of Putin and his military. But this is not a high -precision weapon.
- What since February 24 the total number of civilians who died as a result of the strikes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on settlements of Ukraine? - According to police, as of October 10, 8 436 civilians were killed, 6 134 were injured. 422 were also killed and 804 children were injured. But this is without the territories that are uncontrolled, including Mariupol, Popasna, etc.
- Iranian UAV Shahd: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Russian Federation ordered them 2400 units. How effective can they be called, how much they are danger to our army, air defense systems, etc. ? - A weapon that explodes and can kill, of course, dangerous. If you compare them with HIMARS, then I think one rocket costs 100 such UAVs. They are still not 100% accurate, and their combat part of 10 kg can not affect any particularly fortified buildings. But, of course, they do harm.
In addition, they consider valuable air defense missiles. Therefore, it is very important to use the old Soviet complexes of the type "Shilka" and "Tunguska" as much as possible now by our forces and land forces. These are small caliber firing, which will be very successful to knock down such drones. - What are the consequences for Iran's military assistance? - Iran is so under sanctions. This is a regime that he wanted to have some human rights, for human life.
They are with Russia, with Putin now in one boat. In fact, there is an alliance between China, Iran and the Russian Federation. The same Iranian oil and gas are purchased by China. Because of sanctions, Europe and the US do not buy them, and China is yes. China is also the largest developer and investor in Iran. - In your opinion, who really blew the Crimean bridge? Is the SBU, GUR MOU, other Ukrainian agencies or the Russians themselves? - Those who did it will write about it in their memoirs.
The most important result of the blasting of the Crimean bridge is, of course, a psychological trauma for those who believed that Russia is strong and unattainable. This is the most important blow. Yes, after a while, they will restore the collapsed roadway and rail. But they will never restore their sense of peace and invulnerability. The blow on the Crimean bridge, of course, weakened Russia's power and strengthened Ukraine's position.
In particular, many now think that Mossad and the CIA are no longer a number one. - The pace of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces slowed down somewhat. What do you think this is related to? - There is a General Staff that controls the offensive. Which is more visible - you need to step faster or slower. It has all the data with an understanding of what are the opportunities for the offensive. In order for the offensive to occur faster, you need even more weapons.
- We can wait for new breakthroughs and such total defeats as in the Kharkiv region? - There are two main fronts - eastern and southern. Only Ukrainian armed forces are coming on the Southern Front. On the eastern front there is an Armed Forces in the direction of Svatov and Kremlin. At the same time, the fourth month is a sluggish attempt of the Wagnerians to step towards Bakhmut. But it is already turning into some clown.
Because if you look at the statements of Russian propagandists, they will come there since the 20th of June. Despite the fact that the front line there to Bakhmut is only a few kilometers. They cannot take almost 100 days. Bakhmut became a certain Stalingrad, only on the site of his defenders - Ukrainians, and the forces of the offensive - the fascists. - As a rule, in the winter, the fighting is somewhat slowed. A number of experts from this war expect similar development.
In your opinion, will there be a slowdown? - The speed of hostilities on our part depends largely on the speed of supply of weapons and ammunition. On the contrary, I expect that the offensive will not stop and will last at any time of the year. For the same wheel armored vehicles, it is better to step on frozen soil than on dirt. Let me remind you that Putin chose the end of February for the offensive, frosty time when the soil was firm. - Another topic that is now being discussed.
Can Putin use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? - Putin is a maniac patient and a military criminal. Therefore, it is impossible to exclude the use of 100%. But if he has a drop of common sense and a sense of prediction, he should understand that the use of tactical nuclear weapons against the Armed Forces will turn him into a final exile, with which there will be no negotiation, and all Russia will turn into a "plague barrack".
; - Equal Bucha, where people on the streets were massively shot, we have not yet found. The second level of cruelty is raisins that have undergone mass bombardment. There a huge number of citizens died in their homes just under bombs. I personally in Izium was near the house where two entrances collapsed, from which, according to the locals, 47 corpses were reported. Whole families were killed.
There was absolutely no military need to bombard multi -storey buildings, there was absolutely no construction. - Can you characterize the average collaborator in the occupied territory? Who is his age, marital status? - As a rule, these are people from 40 and more. People who believe that the collapse of the USSR is a great grief that Ukraine is a mistake. Usually, these are Russian -speaking people, Russians by their origin.
We were brought up, say, in the rabbiting before Moscow, before the Russian Federation. And which did not see the future of Ukraine as an independent state. - Is it known how many Ukrainians have become collaborators at this point? - There are hidden collaborators and open. Speaking of open ones, it is probably about several thousand people. For those who morally supported the "Russian world", I think they are more.
But I think that after our victory, everyone who supported the Russians will just leave Ukraine. - Have there been detentions of education staff who agreed to work under the Russian occupation? - I do not know about such cases. - How many employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - police, rescuers, etc. - became collaborators in the occupied territories? - Rescuers remained in the occupied territories and did their work - rescued Ukrainians from fires, from disasters.
Talking about the collaboration of people who did their work is the same as talking about doctors who saved people's lives. If we talk about police, the maximum level was the deputy head of the district police department of Kharkiv region. The rest are ordinary people who did not occupy some high posts. Therefore, it cannot be said that the police were imbued with collaborators. Especially compared to 2014, when in the Crimea the leadership of police moved to the side of the enemy.
When the SBU chief Peter Zima became the General of the FSB of the Russian Federation. There is no such this time. In general, we had patriotic people at the posts, there are no high -ranking betrayals. I do not have the exact figures, but I think that less than 10% of police started working on the side of the Russian Federation. The police received instructions from certain territories and performed them. In addition to isolated cases.
Now, when we restore the regional departments in the same estuary and raisins, the same police officers who have previously gone come. -Did it be able to detain one of the kolabiar law enforcement agencies in the territories who moved to the Russian side? - In Balaklia, the head of the occupation police was detained, in Izium - the chief of the criminal investigation of the occupation police. Both were pensioners released ten years before the invasion.
They just get into the image of a collaborator - pro -Russian are tuned, Russians by nationality and hated Ukraine. - Residents of occupied territories have been waiting for the return of the Ukrainian authorities since 2014? Does the forces of Ukraine's defense come from there information about the movement, equipment and bases of the Russian military? - The maximum amount of information comes from satellites.
The first question - of course, there are those who are waiting for Ukraine, there are those who do not expect, it is obvious. It is difficult to call the ratio, there you will not carry out the poll. But, of course, there are people who want Ukraine's return. And they want peace. Peace will only be possible when these territories are returned to our country. -What scenarios of development of the Russian-Ukrainian war do you see? - One scenario is only the victory of Ukraine.
- And in what ways can we come to it? - The territory of continental Ukraine will be liberated by the power of weapons, including Donetsk and Lugansk. That's my expectations. As for the Crimea . . . It is technically difficult to go there. But if the Russians defend it, then sanctions will be caused by losses of $ 100-150 billion a year. The cost of occupation will be so high that they simply will not be able to keep it.
-How much will the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war last? - I hope it will end in 2023 of the liberation of Ukraine. And so it can take many years. Because there may not be a peace treaty, as between Japan and Russia, between North and South Korea. But active fighting, in my opinion, will end next year. - How much will the life of Ukrainian defenders mobilized in the Russian Federation will complicate? How can they affect the front? - Of course, this will have a negative impact.
Because you will have to spend more cartridges and shells on the destruction of the invaders who have arrived again. This will not help Putin and the Russians to keep our territories. This will complicate their release. In principle, why did you need mobilization? To plug holes on the front, put in trenches. Because no one was sitting in the trenches. And so you just need more guns, more weapons. Three times more HIMARS, three times more artillery, five times more tanks and armored vehicles.
Just a weapon, and not. The most important thing is that the Russians, both mobilized and those who are already here, absolutely do not have the will to win. They do not understand what they are doing here. And when they get here they see that their business is not right here, they feel fascists. - Your opinion on the future of the Russian Federation. What awaits her? - I think that Putin's change is waiting for the Russian Federation. He will leave.
He will either sit on the defendants, or will be forced to hide in some North Korea, or he will be killed by one of the avengers or from his surroundings. And the Russian Federation will never be the way it was before the invasion. It will be separated, the regional elites will lift the head and no longer want to plant a dictator's neck, which can bring Russia into the war. There are many local Russian king - Bashkir, Tatar and others.
They all had real estate in Europe, yachts, Bentley, Rolls Roys, rested there, cabbage from life, thanks to the Russian Federation, thanks to a full-scale war. Now they have everything closed. Do you think they like Putin for it? No, they hate him because their sweet life is over. And all this because they put him on his head and did not contradict him anywhere. But frankly - earlier, Putin was playing in every possible way.
Look at what Germany was doing in the face of former chancellors Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schroeder. They gave themselves to entangle gas pipelines. In February, Germany received 55% of gas from the Russian Federation. Despite the fact that everyone was warned: "If you go into such a dependence - Putin will drag the rope. " Everyone was warned that the Nord Stream-2 should not be built, as it will increase the risk of invasion of Ukraine.