It looks like a Russian trace. Turkey's economy has received $ 24 billion from unknown sources - FT
HB Business has translated and edited the key theses of this material, which was published within the editorial blog of FT Alphaville. Video Day Central Bank Data Turkey shows that the current account deficit continued to increase in July and reached $ 36. 7 billion. The economic problems of the country are well known. In particular, Ankara experiments with interest rates supported by Turkish President Recep TaiP Erdogan have led to a strong devaluation of the Turkish lyre over the last year.
Therefore, capital outflows, including global companies, began from Turkey. According to Danske Bank, since 2013, "joint capital, nominated in Lyra, and public debt, has decreased (20% for shares and 2% for bonds). " This dynamics had long -term consequences for Turkey's economy.
The outflow of such a scale, in addition to the current account deficit, is a bad news for the country's foreign exchange reserves at a time when it is trying to support the Lyre and make sure that its banks still have enough currency. Erdogan seems to have found a "little assistant or assistant", FT writes.
Bloomberg reports: “The mysterious capital flows to Turkey have reached new maxima, which has allowed to increase reserves, despite the growing trade deficit and poor demand for assets in lyra. Central Bank in Ankara stated that money that it could not be corrected in the monthly balance of payments increased by $ 5. 5 billion in July, and in just 7 months of this year it is $ 24. 4 billion.
It is record performance in almost four decades "Often such differences (so -called pure errors and passes, Net Erros and Omissions, or NEO) are subsequently painted by accounts when foreign partners decipher their own data. amounted to only $ 10. 2 billion Bloomberg reports that tourism revenues could not explain these figures. In July, income in this sector amounted to $ 4. 5 billion, and from January to July - $ 16. 4 billion. This is approximately 70% of the net errors and gaps for the same period.
FT Alphaville asked analysts who follow Turkey's economy about possible sources of these billions. Liam of Capital Economics said they did not know the details The moment in Turkey is very large and is probably the result of incorrectly registered capital flows. But in reality, it can reflect anything: from the sale of gold and the deposit of currency to improper accounting of services or smuggling.
It is difficult to know exactly what is happening, but it is obvious that this has provided a key support for the current account deficit this year, and if these incomprehensible flows are back, it will again attract attention to the low level of Turkey's reserves. Timothy Ash with Bluebay Asset Management has a Russian influence. He says that Turkish banks may be quite happy to accept money moving the Russian Federation.
"Undoubtedly, Erdogan has done his best to get rid of the proverb" enemy of my enemy - my friend "in recent months, when Turkey has established closer trade relations with Russia, and supplies to Ukraine drones that are crucial to the country's defense. Ash said that in his opinion, Turkish banks do not adhere too much to the procedures of Komajus: "If someone comes with a suitcase of cash, [Turkish banks] will find ways to allow him to do business . . .
Turkish officials seem to be aware They benefit from sanctions, facilitating streams. " If it is right, it gives a hint of money that can flee from Russia. Erdogan himself did not clarify the situation in his comments last week. “The reserves of our central bank began to increase. This allows us to feel more comfortable with respect to foreign currency reserves. In this regard, many friendly countries now provide the necessary support, ”Erdogan was quoted on Reuters.