Keep the captured. Why Putin "Referendums" and mobilization
Representative so -called DNR Denis Pushilin, in particular, posted a video that allegedly talking to a colleague with adjacent quasi -formation Leonid Pasichnyk. They agreed "on synchronization of actions on" referendums "and then announced dates. The vote decided to spend several days (September 23-27), outside the" polling stations "-this is, they say, will help to avoid the accumulation of people. However, one day still They will also hold the usual - with "ballot" on one of them.
In the ballots at the "referendum" there will be one question: "Do you support the entry of the republics into the Russian Federation on the rights of the subject?" urgently accepted the republic to the Russian Federation. promise to declare within five days. Soon the pseudo -referendums were declared in the occupied Kherson region.
Allegedly, "considering the appeals of public organizations and residents of the region", "a decision was made to Voting on the entry of the Kherson region into the Russian Federation. " This was stated by the chairman of the occupation administration Vladimir Saldo. His deputy, Cyril Stremousov's collaborator, explained: "A referendum is needed that people do not fear that Russia will go. " Will assist in the organization of "voting" Russia.
The part of the Zaporizhzhya region, which is not controlled by the Government of Ukraine, also announced the organization of "will". At the "national congress of citizens of Zaporizhzhya region, with the territorial affiliation of the region" gathered all the Kremlin appointments who hold positions in the occupation administration.
The self -proclaimed head of the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhya region Yevgen Balytsky believes that this "entry into the Russian Federation will help the development of the region and stop the war. " In addition, Balytsky stated that soon after that the collection of "volunteers" for "to support the Russian army" would begin. Collaborators in Ukraine and the world were reacted quickly and sharply.
Everyone announced the non -recognition of pseudo -referendums, the sanctions for attempting to vote and to provide new military assistance packages to Ukraine. Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said that neither fake "referendums" nor hybrid mobilization will not be able to influence the real picture.
In the office of the President of Ukraine, statements from the Russian Federation were called blackmail and specified: pseudo -referendums will not allow legalization of the seizure of Ukrainian lands. "The enemy is afraid, primitively manipulates. Ukraine will resolve the Russian question. The threat can be eliminated only by force," - wrote the head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine Andriy Ermak.
It is obvious that the idea of holding "referendums" belongs to the Kremlin, but he did not know when it would embody it. Therefore, the reaction to the statements of the collaborators on the first day was fuzzy.
When so -called Russian experts and propagandists have already stated that "referendums" would serve as a legal basis for changing the status of a special military operation of the Russian Federation " - and that there would be a declaration of war, the official Moscow kept silence. The pause was interrupted by the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.
He wrote that "referendums" "are of great importance not only for the systemic protection of residents", but also for the restoration of historical justice. "After their holding and adopting new territories, geopolitical transformation in the world will become irreversible," Medvedev said on September 20. On the same day, Vladimir Putin had to turn to the Russians. His speech was waiting until the evening, but the President of the Russian Federation spoke only on September 21 in the morning.
Putin said he supports the proposal to mobilize the country's citizens - "to protect Russia, its sovereignty and integrity. " And signed the appropriate decree. Only citizens who are in stock will be subject to conscription - they will undergo additional preparation "taking into account the war in Ukraine". The mobilization will begin immediately.
"The Kremlin's idea of mobilization and referendums is connected with the pressure of different elites, including from below, that is, collaborators," says focus Kherson political scientist Vladimir Molchanov. they will not be ready. They will not be held. Instead, we will see the creation of 13 precinct commissions of almost 800 that exist in the Kherson region. These commissions have used the entire staff of collaborators and unemployed with Ukrainian passports.
This means that in fact it is Most of the territory, simply organizing work there, will not be possible, even in terms of their own safety, if some of the sites are open, they will become the object of aiming damage to the Armed Forces. Participation in such referendums is a crime, and criminals are punished.
" Molchanov adds: in his opinion, "a referendum can be organized in unknown places, possibly in several locations, groups of actors who will play both the role of members of the commission and the role of voters who have come to support Russia. " The result will be several plots of different Russian and collaborator channels that "Kherson supports joining the Russian Federation. " "All figures will be taken from the ceiling.
I will not be surprised if 700 or 800 thousand" for "the so -called reunion, despite the fact that now in Kherson region, even in particular children, there are no 500,000 people. More than half of the residents of the region They went beyond it, ”Molchanov says. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko says focus: in the legal sense, these "referendums" are quite insignificant. This is just an excuse for the transition to a new phase of war, regarding partial mobilization.
"It is Putin's signal that he is not going to capitulate and lose this war," Fesenko explains. "Putin is going to fight for the latter. The referendums do not have any significance. I will remind that even a referendum in Crimea, which was in peaceful circumstances, because then there were no fighting, contradicted international law. Even close partners of Moscow did not recognize the annexation of Crimea. Neither China nor Belarus.
What happens now is absolute imitation , falsification, fraud and staging. All people, more or less familiar with the voting procedure in the referendum, understand that this is not done during the war. It is impossible to organize a normal voting, especially the territories that have left no less, but possibly and more than half of the population. The politically meaning of pseudo -referendums is to justify partial mobilization and respond to criticism within Russia, says expert.
UGA reason is probably the main one. "Putin must show the determination that everything is going on. He has already spoken about it, but after defeat in Kharkiv region it must be supported somehow. Therefore, in terms of internal logic, he demonstrates the determination that he will fight. At the same time statements about partial mobilization and that that the use of nuclear weapons is not a bluff, it scares the event.
He wants the event to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, "Vladimir Fesenko continues. Ukrainian experts also say that Russia has gone to Bank, but it remains uncertainty so that there is a field for maneuver, because there are no forces and means to fulfill their threats to the Russians. "Thus, not only Ukraine but also the event is put ultimatum," - suggests political analytics Maria Kucherenko.
At the same time, she notes that in the fact that such a "request" arose, it is not surprising - it was just a matter of time. "Will they be annexed? I doubt:" Referendums "can be made and accepted" results "," she says. It can happen as in 2014, when so -called referendums were already conducted in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Then the "inhabitants" spoke "to join" the Russian Federation, but some legal consequences were not enough.
There were some steps after the "referendum", there were always doubts. Talks about holding "referendums" have been sounded for a long time. On March 29, the representative of the occupation administration, Pushilin spoke about the accession of the territories controlled to Russia. However, then he emphasized that first we needed to capture the whole territory in the Donetsk region.
In Lugansk, the "referendum" was declared in May, but since then the date of illegal voting was postponed several times. They transferred plans to organize "will" in Kherson region. On September 11, the Russian media wrote that the Kremlin was put on a pause of "referendums" in the occupied regions of Ukraine - due to the successful offensive of the Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region.
The fact that the synchronous statement of ORDLO Leonid Pasichnyk and Denis Pushilin with a request to hold "referendums" on accession to Russia in the shortest possible time put Moscow in a very disadvantage situation, and analysts of the American Institute for War Study say.
On the one hand, Russian propagandists claim that the "Crimean script" in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions will allow Russians to be easier to threaten NATO with blows in response to Ukrainian counter -countercurs that the Kremlin could already be considered an attack and "respond".
In addition, Russia will most likely "recognize" the territory of the regions completely, and then require Ukraine to "not annex territory" or "free from occupation" (for example, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk). But this requirement will look nothing more than a threat, which they will not currently be able to fully control the territory of any of the four regions. She captured most in Luhansk and Kherson region-90-98% of the territory, the least-in Donetsk region and in the Zaporizhzhya region.
According to the chairman of Donetsk Ova Pavel Kirilenko, the armed sides of Ukraine are constantly monitoring 45% of the region. Recently, the Ukrainian army has entered Svyatogorsk, and clearing in the city and around it. "But we see that yesterday and today statements, in particular from the podium of the General Assembly of the UN, that none of the civilized countries will recognize a" referendum ". Even Erdogan has already stated that he did not recognize pseudolonging.
China and even Belarus did not recognized the annexation of Crimea, - reminds Vladimir Fesenko. - And Scholtz has already stated that no peace on Russian conditions could be made. In this sense, Putin will try to fix himself within the limits that the Russians are already control to Russia. He believes that this will stop the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But no. The offensive continues because no one recognizes these territories in Russian.
" For a long time, the question remained: whether Russia is able to declare open mobilization and if so, in what format it is partial, full of how long it will spend hidden. Both Ukrainian and international experts have said that Russia lacks the strength and means at the front, Russians need to restore losses, change degraded and demoralized units. The fact that mobilization can be announced was known on the eve of Putin's speech.
The State Duma introduced the concept of "mobilization" and "wartime" in the Criminal Code, as well as approved amendments for liability for desertion during mobilization or in wartime (in particular, introduced criminal responsibility for voluntary surrendering - from 3 to 10 years, for refusal to participate in hostilities - up to 3 years of colony). But politically for Putin mobilization remains unprofitable.
Immediately after his speech, Russian citizens began to look on the Internet how to evade mobilization and where to buy plane tickets. "Russia is not set to complete mobilization, it is not possible to keep and command such a crowd of people," says Vladimir Molchanov. - The only thing they can do is to mobilize to complete the parts that have suffered significant losses and require additional human resources. It's not even about three hundred thousand.
It is more likely to replenish the existing parts. More problems will arise with the introduction of compulsory military orders at enterprises, despite the fact that executives have spread criminal responsibility for refusal. But where there is a forced order, there is a crisis of payments, a rollback for refusing such an order. In fact, this will mean an accident of the Russian economy. I am even sorry that they did not declare full and total mobilization - it would be an accident instant.