War and coronavirus: Russia feels a "demographic nightmare" - The Economist

The population of the Russian Federation is declining: in the last three years, the country has lost 2 million people more than usual. At the same time, the number of Russians born in April 2022 was no greater than during the Hitler occupation. Demographic tragedy is unfolding in Russia - over the last three years, due to wars, diseases and emigration, the country has lost about 2 million more than usual. About it writes the British newspaper The Economist in an article published on March 4.

The publication notes that the number of Russians born in April 2022 was no greater than in the month of Hitler's occupation. And because so many conscripts have died in the war in Ukraine or are exposed to emigration, the number of women exceeds the number of men at least 10 million. According to journalists, the war is not the only reason for the "demographic nightmare" in Russia, but it significantly increased it.

Thus, according to Western experts, in the last year, 175 000-200 000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured. From 500,000 to 1 million young educated people escaped meat grinders, going abroad. Even if Russia did not have other demographic problems, the loss of so many people would still be painful in such a short time. But already, the losses of war lie even more burden on the diseased population. The Economist writes that the roots of crisis in Russia reach 30 years ago.

The peak of the population came in 1994 - 149 million people. Since then, the population has declined zigzag. In 2021, it amounted to 145 million people (this figure, according to the UN, does not include 2. 4 million inhabitants of Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014 and included in its national accounts). According to the UN forecasts, only 120 million people can conserve current trends in 50 years. This will make Russia the 15th largest country in the world, compared to the sixth place in 1995.

According to Alexei Rakshi, an independent demographer who previously worked in the State Statistics Service, if we consider only years of peacetime, the number of births registered in April 2022 was the lowest since the eighteenth century. April was a particularly harsh month, but it was a demonstrative look at a chronic problem. According to the State Statistical Agency, in 2020 and 2021 the population of Russia decreased by 1.

3 million people, and the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 1. 7 million people. The largest reduction occurred among ethnic Russians, the number of which, according to the 2021 census, decreased by 5. 4 million in 2010-21. Their share in the population decreased from 78% to 72%. All this began before the war and reflects the horrific pandemic of Kovid in Russia.

The official number of those killed by the disease was 388 091, but according to journalists, the total number of deaths in 2020-23 will be from 1. 2 million to 1. 6 million. This can be compared to China and the US, whose population is much more. In Russia, it may have been the highest number of deaths in the world after India and the highest mortality rate among all countries-850-1100 deaths per 100,000 people.

Adding mortality from pandemic to losses from war and mobilization, Russia will lose from 1. 9 to 2. 8 million people in 2020-23 over normal demographic deterioration. According to the publication, the demographic crisis can interfere with plans to increase the number of armed forces of the Russian Federation by 350,000 people over the next three years. We will remind, on March 3 it was reported that in Russia held an online referendum for the independence of five republics. At least 5.