Attack on Moldova. Will Ukraine and Romania interfere
On February 23, the Ministry of Defense of Russia stated that the Ukrainian forces allegedly preparing armed provocation - the Armed Forces will dress in the form of the Russian army and will be attacked. The Kremlin has traditionally accused the event and "Kiev regime" in provocations near Transnistria.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation went further - on March 1, they announced the delivery of radioactive substances to Ukraine through the ports of Odessa and the Black Sea and further provocations in the PMR. Tiraspol is calm - believes in the guarantee of security from a "peacekeeping operation under the auspices of Russia.
" According to Vitaliy Ignatieva, the head of the Transnistrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, quasi -RESPUSE does not pose a military threat to Moldova and Ukraine. And the head of the unrecognized PMR Vadim Krasnosilsky calls not to be subjected to panic moods. The Ukrainian authorities are convinced that the problems in Transnistria creates only Moscow, but for prevention they build fortifications on the border.
The idea of planting a Russian landing near Transnistria in the event of a direct clash, according to representatives of the Armed Forces, is impossible a priori. It is necessary to cross the airspace of NATO or Ukraine. There are approximately 500 Russian "peacekeepers" in the PMR and approximately 1,500 soldiers are in the operational group of Russian troops (ORV), the heirs of the 14th Guards Army of the USSR. This grouping is divided into 2 motor -rifles and management units.
The vast majority of the composition of the URP is completed with locals who do not have Russian citizenship. In addition to the contingent of the Russian forces, the so -called "army" is in Transnistria. Chisinau calls it a militarized group. It includes representatives of the people's militia and the Cossacks. If Tiraspol called all these units, the total number of people would reach 15 thousand people, writes the Romanian portal EVZ.
According to Western military experts, at the beginning of a full -scale invasion, Russia accumulated 20,000 tons of weapons in a warehouse in the village of Kovbasna, which is 2 km from the border with Ukraine. Ammunition, Kalashnikov and T-34 and T-55 tanks are stored there. Moscow explains the presence of fighters by the fact that they provide protection and safety of the arsenal in sausage.
Experts from the Academy of Sciences of Moldova found that the Arsenal explosion will be equivalent to the atomic bombing of the US Army of Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, 1945. Former Defense Minister of Moldova Vitaliy Marinuz drew attention to the danger of Russian military composition for the security of the region. "Ammunition can be used for terrorist purposes.
If the warehouse explodes, the power will be equivalent to the explosion of a 10-ton atomic bomb," he said on TVR. Moldova Foreign Minister Nika Popezka said last year that out of the specified number of weapons of 11,000 tons, 9,000 tons are suitable for battle. The so -called "Ministry of Defense of Transnistria" in Tiraspol has announced from March 1, three -month military meetings.
Men under 55 are lured with money, clothing, housing and food - they are promised to pay 2800 Transnistria rubles or about $ 175. The average salary in PMR is just over $ 300. Moldova President May Sandu argued that Russia would add saboteurs to ignite disorder - an attack on government buildings and hostage. "It is clear that Russia's threats and appetite to escalation of war are very high. Moldova is the most affected country after the war in Ukraine.
We are still a small country with poorly developed economy, and this creates great risks," said CNN former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Moldova, Director of the Institute of European Policy and Reforms in Chisinau Julian Groz. Military expert Igor Koziy in conversation with focus notes that Moscow is able to make a maximum of a coup in Moldova, but not a full -scale invasion. "The number of Russian military in Transnistria is up to 2 thousand people, it is nothing.
Probably their numbers in the last year have decreased due to events in Ukraine. Plus the lack of combat experience. To recruit fighters from the local people who have been engaged in Russian propagandists, it is possible. But but What kind of reason will they be from them? " Asks the analyst. Transnistria demilitarization can become one of Sandu's policy to maintain order in the country, a goat adds. In his opinion, Ukraine will not be afraid of another front with the PMR.
The Russian landing of the Armed Forces was destroyed in Donetsk, Lugansk Kharkiv and Kiev directions. "And now the occupiers need time to gather at least some reinforcements. Romania, Moldova or Ukraine will knock down Russia's airs and terrestrial goals," he notes. Political scientist Viktor Bobirenko said Focus that the Armed Forces would definitely not go into Transnistria without the invitation of Chisinau. The Russians are able to provoke and blame for Moldova or Ukraine.
"Moldova forces are less than in Transnistria. If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation go to Chisinau, Sandu will ask Kiev for help. The saboteurs and police of the PMR can gather for point attacks on state facilities in Moldova. They may be used to change them The government is already asking for the pro -Russian puppets that have come to power. Moldova Prime Minister Dorin Visited Bucharest on March 1 and met with Romanian colleague Nicolas Chuke.
The state emphasized a reliable partnership with Romania. "Bucharest is a partner in our European path. Close relations between Bucharest and Chisinau are strengthened today due to numerous prosets," the Prime Minister said. Chuke added that Romania is constantly promoting Brussels in Brussels the need to support Moldova in her confrontation with the "Russian behavior".
The possible escalation of the conflict between Moldova and Transnistria can affect Romania, warns by historian from Bucharest Florian Banu. He calls Transnistria "a wedge that killed the Russian Federation between Moldova and Ukraine. " The conflict in the PMR, he said, can expand to the international level. It may begin with an attack on Ukraine under someone else's flag. Banu mentioned Romania's involvement in Barbarossa operation in World War II.
Together with Finland, they formed a single front with Germany against the USSR. "If Romania feels that he has a lot of support, she, without hesitation, will take part in the restoration of some Romanian territories," the historian summed up. General Director of the New Strategy Center George Skotaru is convinced that Romania has to invest more in the foreign military placement program, as well as to improve the fleet.
Almost every Moldovan family has a plan in case of an attack of Russia, and if explosions begin, most will go to Romania, journalists from Libertatea noted. "Hundreds of thousands of Romanians live in Moldova with Romanian documents and hundreds of thousands of ethnic Romanians. Will Romania be given shelter to all of them? Since February 2022, all European states, including Romania, have mobilized for the placement of Ukrainian refugees," the material reads.
In Moldova, they learned a lesson on how to take refugees and now offer to find a quick way to get to Romania. "Further - Europe, so we will not strain each other, because not all Moldovan citizens will stop in Romania in case of danger," the journalists said. Many will stay at home, despite any war, including pensioners and lonely people.
There is another category: people who want to build something new - journalists, activists, doctors, teachers, rescuers, part of the new political class and its leaders, summed up the publication. It should be reminded that according to the Ambassador of Moldova to Ukraine Valery Kiver, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the unrecognized Transnistria depends on the success of the Armed Forces on the front.